Quote from: coinonymous on September 11, 2011, 11:34:53 AM

Put another way, who fucking knows what will happen!? It's fascinating to speculate about, but any sort of "return-to-mean, ldo" hypothesis, intrinsic value hypothesis or other chart-whisperer hypothesis probably has no basis here. We need to think way, way outside of those boxes because the supply and demand functions of Bitcoin don't answer to the same fundamentals we are accustomed to seeing in other commodities.

Amen. The whole notion that $4 or $5 is cheap while $30 would be high is, quite frankly, laughable. Its not a stock you can measure against P/E ratio's, its not a national currency you can measure against gross domestic product. There really isnt any yardstick.

Or maybe there is, its the amount of trade conducted with BTC. Any sustainable demand for BTC will come from trade (not speculation). At the moment, there is almost none. You cant buy a bloody thing with it, and next to no one uses it buy goods or services. As such, even $5 for a bitcoin today is probably way too high. $4.9 of that is speculation But its anyone's guess how much real world trade will be conducted using bitcoins over the next years. You can guess that fairly well with euro's or dollars, but no one can even have a clue about BTC trade volume in 2013 let alone 2020. And that is what you need to know to make at least an educated guess about what BTCs should be worth. Give me that number and Ill tell you if $0.05 or $50,000 is high or low.