Quote from: cypherdoc on September 15, 2011, 06:20:40 AM

... buying b/c everyone's pessimistic. nothing in there about manipulation by the Fed or CB's.

Jim Rogers does not use the term 'manipulation' explicitly. Rampant monetary inflation is not manipulation? Perhaps we should have an agreed-upon definition, because virtually everything being done now is manipulative, as far as I'm concerned. The markets are being whipped around by the major institutions and that's been their entire means of preventing collapse - keeping market participants too confused to make a cohesive decision one way or another.

You called for a USD rise, which is fine. I took no issue with that, only your insistence that your concept is radically new when it isn't. The mechanism has been described by others.

Please keep the focus on the concepts and avoid ad hominem arguments.

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 15, 2011, 06:20:40 AM

now come the veiled criticisms/excuses.

It was a compliment.

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 15, 2011, 06:20:40 AM

why do you always quote yourself?

Quote from: miscreanity on August 23, 2011, 05:56:33 PM

... It's also easier to quote than retype.

There are a lot of links and quotes in my posts. I add them when they're relevant and make my point further.

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 15, 2011, 06:20:40 AM

the USD reserve currency system is based on debt. banks borrow USD from the Fed at below mkt rates and from each other at he Fed Funds rate and go out into the world and speculate in emerging mkts esp China the last decade. these USD's are mopped up by the foreign CB's and they keep most of these in reserve and then inflate their own currencies on top of the USD reserves. hence my inverse pyramid analogy of debt and currency built upon debt. most of the debt in the emerging mkts is USD denominated. problem is when we get financial crises and everyones debt starts imploding the scramble for USD's to try and prop up those bad debts and maintain enough USD reserves becomes intense and worse overseas and is really why the USD goes up. its not so much for the safe haven status as that they are FORCED to liquidate bad bets and buy USD's to cover as much of the bad debt as possible. hence the shrinkage of virtual USD's worldwide. this is why the Fed is forced to provide swap lines nowadays and why most of the TARP and bailout money had to go to prop up overseas banks.

Absolutely - this was one of the things we agreed on. Essentially, N^th derivatives. The problem with assuming the USD is everything is that it's also a derivative: of gold.

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 15, 2011, 06:20:40 AM

i point to all emerging US stock mkts year to date as evidence to my assertion. ALL are worse off than the Dow or S&P year to date. what evidence do you submit other than a blanket "this is how i see it"?

I point to all but very long-term technical charts and indicators as being suspect, stemming from the fact that manipulation paints false signals. In addition, assets and the means to make use of them are disproportionately distributed throughout the world, with the productive capacity and infrastructure decaying among developed nations.

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 15, 2011, 06:20:40 AM

i just think the deflationary depression comes before the hyperinflation, the reverse of what you predict.

This relies as much on policy decision as hyperinflation.

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 15, 2011, 06:20:40 AM

at least you perhaps inadvertently agree with me that there will never be a one world currency if you believe in war.

A dominant world currency is very possible. There will be alternatives so long as currencies exist.

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 15, 2011, 06:20:40 AM

i don't think you understand. these paper mkts were funded with USD debt. as the debt based paper markets in gold or whatever implode, speculators are FORCED to scramble for "physical" USD's to pay off their losses. these usually come in the form of margin calls and they don't have a choice to plow that money over to physical gold and certainly can't use physical gold to pay off their losses.

Margin calls will hit and losses will occur. So what happens on the other side of the trade? Derivatives form reservoirs into which capital flows. The flow into them doesn't immediately disappear - it's a process. Where does that money go?

When paper market volatility is extreme and the price is collapsing, will investors continue to risk leverage in markets on an instrument decoupled from its underlying, in-demand asset? No. After seeing so many lose their shirts in paper, they'll have to buy the asset itself or risk further losses. It's a learning process and those who learn quickest will be the most successful.

Write-downs can only occur to a certain extent, that being the level of the derivative-holder's solvency. Beyond that, its assets become forfeit. Valuation thus flows out of that entity and into the recipient by way of asset transfer.

Derivatives have been great for turning profits without getting hands dirty. If a trader wouldn't normally be trading the underlying asset, a precarious situation exists for any market. With gold, demand for the asset is rising naturally - i.e. not forced. This is opposite the dollar, which is being forced higher.

Should the derivative valuation be crushed and demand still exist for physical, the financial instruments won't matter at all. They key is demand for the underlying asset, not the derivative. Nobody wants a herd of cattle or hundred barrels of oil sitting in his yard, but a hundred ounces of gold? Who would want a bundle of dollars if it's dropping in value relative to real assets? Only those who see the numbers go up, but don't think about what the numbers are going up in relation to.

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 15, 2011, 02:35:47 PM

what if those same derivatives get destroyed via forced liquidation? what happens to the BTC price or the gold price? STILL go up?

As explained above, demand for the real asset is all that matters, regardless of any initial shock that may occur due to derivative disintegration.

Gold is a real asset. Bitcoin is a... surreal asset?

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 15, 2011, 02:02:23 PM

Quote from: miscreanity on September 14, 2011, 08:34:58 PM

A managed market does not offer genuinely valid technical signals. By the same token, manipulation can only go so far. On very long term charts, the technicals will provide a better gauge of the long-term trend. This is why it can be hard to keep up with the daily gesticulations, but easy to see the big movements.

but at the same time you've used technical analysis in this thread many times esp to point out target points for the subsequent parabola thats supposed to come along with several support/resistance lines. which is it?

Please re-read. Fundamentals provide overall direction; technicals offer points of interest. Driving fundamentally west from Washington, DC? Stop at the Arlington Memorial and the Grand Canyon on the way to Los Angeles.

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 15, 2011, 02:02:23 PM

its been 3 wks now since SLV, /SI, and SLW have rejected off their 61.8% retraces from the bottom of Mays selloff. thats a warning.

Of course it's a warning: that's the idea. Market moves can take a long time to unfurl. This helps to scare out those trading without patience. It helps to have unlimited cash-flow in the form of an illusion to blind the populace.

The price activity we're seeing has been exhibited very often just before options expiration. With physical delivery of gold and silver becoming overwhelming in the futures markets, any additional strain will be prevented at all costs. If that includes throwing what the banks know is worthless paper at the problem, then that's what will happen. Is it in the banks' best interests to have thousands of new millionaires minted because they held some well positioned longs in precious metals?

Look at the price action recently - from the beginning of each month, PM prices are hammered right up to options expiration. After options expiration, prices rise. Behind the scenes, the numbers strongly suggest short covering: the banks are getting out of Dodge. Add to that the FOMC decision coming up; this is no surprise, only the exact events are curious because they echo past events.

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 15, 2011, 03:24:46 PM

20 year, weekly chart of /GC gold future. High correlation to gold spot and long term.

NO parabola?

Try a logarithmic chart, or you'll see exponential rises everwhere.

From August 26th:

Quote

When the parabolic rise becomes evident on logarithmic charts, then its panic time.

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 15, 2011, 11:21:18 PM

Quote from: netrin on September 15, 2011, 10:50:44 PM

With deflation, extant interest rates are more valuable to the lender and crushing to the debtor.

+1 this is why i don't think bankers let HT happen.

There's a problem: the banks are now stuck holding each others' debt. The crap that was flushed down the financial sewers finally clogged up the works and is backing up into the bankers' own homes. If it's impossible to break the clog, the next best thing is to dilute the junk so that it isn't so toxic anymore, consequences be damned.

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 16, 2011, 01:40:55 AM

LOL! The $DXY came within a penny of my 76.20 target. i guess the Fed has decided to make this a valid breakout. oh my, there's going to be hell to pay.

Painted charts are picture-perfect. Be nimble and mind your stops - best to you with your trading.

Once again, options expiration followed by the FOMC next week. You may as well consult a Ouija board for the daily predictions. The targets of $1,740 and $1,680 remain, with $1,700 a likely point to be retested intraday during the Fed announcement.