Quote from: figmentofmyass on October 27, 2019, 08:31:35 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on October 27, 2019, 06:34:58 PM

Quote from: figmentofmyass on October 27, 2019, 06:30:48 PM

context is everything. the death crosses that actually followed through occurred after bubble pops, in april 2014 and april 2018. these aren't representative of our current market position.

the failed death cross in september 2015 seems like a much more accurate comparison---the first pullback after a reversal/trend change.

I'd like to believe that, but this death cross came at the end of the bull market (and relative highs), not the end (or lows) of the bear market (like in 2015).
But obviously this is subjective to the time frame you are looking at, etc, etc.

yes, time frame is crucial to this assessment. pull up a monthly chart---we need some perspective.

Here it is already, published last month. The Red 1 monthly candle suggested it was time to make a big decision, either much more downside or the month being more of an "anomaly" and last dip before the bull-run. So far the price has followed the bullish path by flipping to a Green 1, that I imagine at this rate will close a Green 1 too. This is bullish, I agree. Hence the neutral outlook on the monthly chart, despite the bearish scenarios that could have (but didn't) happen.

Once the month closes, I'll consider doing another piece of TA, but until then, I don't see the relevance as the intra-week movements are just noise.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on September 29, 2019, 11:47:30 AM

Part 6: If Bitcoin Repeats History? Monthly TD Sequential Red 1

Source: Trading View, September 28th 2019

Own work: dragononcrypto

Quote from: figmentofmyass on October 27, 2019, 08:31:35 PM

there is no comparison between 2013, 2017, and......now. the death crosses from april 2014 and april 2018 came after multi-year bull markets that ended with exponential gains and parabolic bubbles. the current situation is very different. june-october = the first pullback of this bull market on the monthly time frame. you think it's the end?!

this correction (and where we are in the market cycle) looks much more like fall 2012 or early 2016---in the early stages a multi-year bull market. in that sense, the late 2015 failed death cross is a much better comparison IMO.

I'm definiately not denying this time it's very different, hence being able to draw a series of different scenarios that can ensue. You're right I haven't done enough comparisons with 2013 and 2017, due to lack of similarities I've been able to find. If you have any suggestions I'm all ears by the way, I could do with the inspiration. Although I feel this is similar to how people suggested I compared "bullish" descending triangles instead of just "bearish" ones, until they realised that generally speaking they don't exist for BTC. However think Part 5 is a fair comparison of what could occur during a bull market, and is playing out, regarding a "quick dip" scenario.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on September 29, 2019, 11:47:30 AM

Part 5: If 2017 Descending Triangle Repeats? Best Case Scenario

Source: Trading View, September 17th 2019

Own work: dragononcrypto

FYI I'm still hodling long, despite the bearish analysis. I even bought the dip at $7800 and $7500, and a bit of the pump at $9800, so probably not as "bearish" as you may think.