Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on October 31, 2019, 02:33:08 PM

Quote from: btcanonymous666 on October 31, 2019, 02:25:39 PM

Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on October 31, 2019, 01:17:44 PM

Quote from: Phil_S on October 31, 2019, 12:51:06 PM

"2x per year" lines, plus Anon's predictions:

I doubt the rise well be that smooth and orderly. This is corn we're talking about.

I think the rise will be less steep & another 12 months to reach that peak.

12 months to $100k? That's pretty optimistic expectation I guess.

Another 12 months than this graph is projecting so mid to late 2021.

Fuck the graphs beyond just allowing us to visualize degrees of movement rather than any kind of level of certainty that is sometimes ascribed to them.

Conceding that bitcoin can make a vast array of outrageous price movements and retrospectively we can look back at "what it did" and assert that it was within the realm of expectations - even if a bit outrageous. In other words, we are kind of used to being shocked by what bitcoin does... especially while in the midst of the doings..

So in that sense it is possible that BTC could front run all of this and get to $100k in 3 months or even less, but in my humble bumble (and sometimes not so humble) thinking, the more prudent scenarios would put 12 months from now as within the range of the minimum of the best case (prudent) scenarios.

More realistically we are talking 12 to 18 months after the halvening (which would be 18 months to 24 months from now) before we would breaking into or even touching upon $100k BTC prices.

Sure, there are also relatively prudent scenarios that would allow for a BIGGER battles taking place this time around and in this 4 year fractal pattern, which would cause a seeming break from the fractal pattern and would cause a much longer period before BTC reaches $100k - perhaps even adding another halvening into the mix before we even are able to reach $100k.

Therefore, even though we feel real wonderful about how bitcoin's price movements have played out so far in our lives to cause a lot of us to become way the fuck richer than we thought and to have become richer much faster than we thought, we should not be allowing such previous patterns to cause us to become too complacent in our BTC price expectations - and treating probably events as givens - which means that even adding another 4 years to whatever had been previously expressed as prudent possible scenarios could allow us NOT to get our hopes up too much, and even those kinds of extra 4 years to reach $100k could still be relatively bullish for bitcoin as long as BTC prices don't go below $5k for extended periods of time - or worse yet to go back to testing $3,122 support seems almost out of the question, even though it could end up playing out as bullish in the long run.

Don't get me wrong, absent some outrageous bitcoin breaking scenario, I would assign really low probabilities to $3,122 being revisited, probably even less than 12%, and even getting back to below $6.5k seems to be less than 40%.. maybe even lower than that could be a prudent assertion, now. I think that my point is that even having decent odds in our favor and making bitcoin to be likely one of the best investments currently on the market, there are a decently large number of scenarios (and even prudent ones) in which the more probable event (going to $100k and beyond within 12 to 18 months after the upcoming halvening) does not end up playing out.

Don't be calling me a bear, you fucks. Tongue

I am merely a cautious bull who does not want to either count my chickens before they are hatched or to create expectations that are so goddamned high that inevitably I am going to end up disappointed. I feel a little better when my situation evolves in such a way that ends up exceeding my expectations, and even with a bit of a cushion of exceedingness - which surely has been my experiences with bitcoin, so far to date.

By the way, in bitcoin, I am about 8x to 12x above my expectations depending on how the matter is framed, so there would have to be some pretty extreme shitty-ass situations happen in bitcoin before I would start to feel that bitcoin has either underperformed my expectations or lead me to a worse situation (psychologically and/or financially), and even if some of the extreme shitty-ass situations were to end up playing out, I am not without some abilities to attempt to recognize the shitty situation and to mitigate my losses, and at the same time, there could also have been some satisfaction for having been on this so far crazy-ass ride.