Quote from: exstasie on October 31, 2019, 11:27:52 PM

Just because it happened a couple times before doesn't mean it'll happen again.

It's possible the run to the $13,000s was a bull trap in a long term bear market that began in December 2017 and hasn't ended yet. That's sgbett's opinion: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2541338.msg52818259#msg52818259

It's also possible the 2019 rally was a short-lived, truncated fifth wave and we're entering a new bearish supercycle. That's xxxx123abcxxxx's alternative scenario: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg52880531#msg52880531

Well, at least that is many people's expectations for bitcoin according to market cycle behavior that tends to repeat over again. There will be fluctuations but I doubt sgbett's opinion will come true, I would like to say in the next couple of months later; hey your prediction was wrong. Halving should be the main reason why bitcoin will not enter the "crypto winter", bear market has passed in the middle of 2019.

But he also said, bullish scenario preferred than bear market

Quote from: xxxx123abcxxxx on October 26, 2019, 03:35:19 AM

The Bullish Scenario (Preferred) suggests Wave-5 is still underway, and the bulls shall be treated to subdividing and extending waves headed for new all-time highs.
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From an Elliott Wave perspective: A common wave relationship guides the price of the fifth wave to be equal to; or extend a Fibonacci 1.618 times; the length from the low of the first wave through to the high of third wave; projected from the low of the fourth wave. This provides a conservative target of the current bull market to conclude between $22,912 and $35,127, calculated using the BraveNewCoin (BLX) index