⭐ Merited by exstasie (1)
Note I didn't reply to all of your message, even if I did appreciate the info, as a lot of this comes down to different style of trading/investing/hedging I believe.
Most bears selling for the past month or so are sitting on huge losses now. Their losses and underwater shorts are actually the fuel for the next move up.
I'm not so sure about this, clearly many panic sold it down to $7.5K after buying around $10K (mainly "new money" I'd imagine), but I don't see how you would of lost money shorting from $9.4K, $8.4 or $7.8K, unless you forgot to use a stop loss - in which case you deserve to lose all your money. I think instead many caught this profit, upto 25% of it. There was only a few days when you could of shorted $7.5K and got "rekt", in which case for most experienced traders they'd be risking recent profit with a stop loss, rather than fresh capital.
We also up trended for less than 24 hours and retraced half the gains within a few days, so there is irony here with this statement. As I mentioned previously, I was shorting above $8K and accumulating below this level, so I'm currently in 2/3 of a swing position from $7650 av. for reference sake. I guess you could say I got lucky, either that or I buy low and sell high, short high and close low, short and long term timeframes. Just because I'm not buying doesn't mean I'm selling a long position, even if I'd short again as a hedge (but only after confirmation). I'd also happily move this swing position to my hodl if the price holds up, this was half of the reasoning for it - in case I was wrong about $6410.
It wouldn't take $14K for me to shed my bearish bias, just a higher high on a long-time timeframe. Currently, given last month/weeks close, that's been lowered to $10.5K. Previously it was $12K but I'd begin laddering before this to get a better average price. As a trader, I never mind buying the price after it's doubled, last time that was at $6.4K so has done me well. Next time it could be at $9K for example, even $6.4K again if we're really lucky. As an investor, I'll otherwise BTFD without much thought process which also serves me well.
I'm honestly really glad you and so many others are still bearish. If everyone was bullish, we wouldn't go up.
Not sure most people are bearish now, from my perspective most seem bullish (hence the bearish bias).
The fear & greed index claims a neutral market, so I think both of us are wrong to have either "natural" bias.
Regardless of this, I wouldn't pull any buy or sell triggers before we break down below the 200 Day MA, or break above $10.5K.
Why so bearish?
Mainly because my bearish calls for the past two months have been more than accurate enough to make good money, so no point changing that in a hurry.Most bears selling for the past month or so are sitting on huge losses now. Their losses and underwater shorts are actually the fuel for the next move up.
I'm not so sure about this, clearly many panic sold it down to $7.5K after buying around $10K (mainly "new money" I'd imagine), but I don't see how you would of lost money shorting from $9.4K, $8.4 or $7.8K, unless you forgot to use a stop loss - in which case you deserve to lose all your money. I think instead many caught this profit, upto 25% of it. There was only a few days when you could of shorted $7.5K and got "rekt", in which case for most experienced traders they'd be risking recent profit with a stop loss, rather than fresh capital.
We downtrended for 4 months and just retraced half the losses in a few days. Maybe you aren't in a hurry, but I'm curious, what are you waiting for exactly before losing your bearish bias? $14K? Watching the market nearly double from the bottom seems like a long time to wait.
We also up trended for less than 24 hours and retraced half the gains within a few days, so there is irony here with this statement. As I mentioned previously, I was shorting above $8K and accumulating below this level, so I'm currently in 2/3 of a swing position from $7650 av. for reference sake. I guess you could say I got lucky, either that or I buy low and sell high, short high and close low, short and long term timeframes. Just because I'm not buying doesn't mean I'm selling a long position, even if I'd short again as a hedge (but only after confirmation). I'd also happily move this swing position to my hodl if the price holds up, this was half of the reasoning for it - in case I was wrong about $6410.
It wouldn't take $14K for me to shed my bearish bias, just a higher high on a long-time timeframe. Currently, given last month/weeks close, that's been lowered to $10.5K. Previously it was $12K but I'd begin laddering before this to get a better average price. As a trader, I never mind buying the price after it's doubled, last time that was at $6.4K so has done me well. Next time it could be at $9K for example, even $6.4K again if we're really lucky. As an investor, I'll otherwise BTFD without much thought process which also serves me well.
I'm always happy to be proved wrong (as is my hodl position), but I otherwise won't be adding to it for sometime by the looks of things.
I'm honestly really glad you and so many others are still bearish. If everyone was bullish, we wouldn't go up.
Not sure most people are bearish now, from my perspective most seem bullish (hence the bearish bias).
The fear & greed index claims a neutral market, so I think both of us are wrong to have either "natural" bias.
Regardless of this, I wouldn't pull any buy or sell triggers before we break down below the 200 Day MA, or break above $10.5K.