Quote from: Majormax on November 25, 2019, 09:38:09 AM

Quote from: Alexander_Z on November 25, 2019, 09:22:24 AM

Quote from: Bossian on November 25, 2019, 07:21:52 AM

Quote from: Bossian on November 15, 2019, 06:24:52 AM

Frankly it is not looking good at the moment, I would even say it's time to sell, and buy back below 8k. I am pretty sure we are heading towards 7k-ish but hopefully we never go back below 6.4k. If we go back below 6.4 there will be a lot of blood (not like the movie).
Then in the middle term there should be a bounce back above 10k (I hope) but breaking above 11k and most importantly above 12.4k will be very tough.
Just hoping the halving will make things move to our advantage, but the technical analysis is looking very ugly in the short term Undecided

Posted 10 days ago.

I was talking about this 6.4k price, not surprised at all we went towards this price, thought it would be in December though.

Quite confident there is a bounce back from there though. It is a major and strong support.

Yes, I remember this post. The current situation is very ugly, looking more and more like the end of 2018. I would not be surprised if we go to 5.2k to form inverse head and shoulders. Cryptowinter is not over yet. Even 3k (and double bottom) is not impossible.

Yes. It was looking bad after 13500 failed, as I posted at the time. The 10500 failure was even worse, as I also posted.

The loss of 7300, and the way it happened, now leaves open the possibility of a new low for the bear move (3k) sometime in the next year. (This is, of course just chart-reading, which may or may not apply to BTC).

Exactly. Your being wrong may apply to BTC, which means that BTC did not fail to break above $13,500 or $10,500 or $7,300. Finding those as meaningful resistance areas rather than the tops of local tops are merely bad readings of the charts.

Quote from: Majormax on November 25, 2019, 09:38:09 AM

The real test now (and also arguably the biggest test of BTC's life) will be the halvening.

No need to be soooooo dramatic Majormax. The halvening is not a BIG test, but it is a restriction of the new supply that could take 6-18months or even longer to play out.

Of course, many of us are thinking, based on a seemingly front running of the four year fractal that BTC could be front running such price run, but surely such physical pressures could possibly be staved off for a longer period of time to try to shake more weak hands and to shake folks from believing in the four year fractal or whatever. Nonetheless, it is not really as much of a BIG test as it is merely a waiting and seeing how all of the many factors play out including how BIG players attempt to use some of the new financialization tools at their disposal and whether BTC's hard supply limits are going to make it much more difficult to use such tools to keep king daddy down.

Quote from: Majormax on November 25, 2019, 09:38:09 AM

If the price does not show very considerable strength in the next year, that would be a sign that the whole game has changed.

I doubt it. There could be efforts to keep king daddy bitcoin down for a period that is longer than one year, and maybe even two years, but seems also that the limited supply is going to be a problem for anyone attempting to keep her down for too long, and especially if more and more people move to managing their own private keys and refusing to sell which shrinks even more the amount of BTC supply that is available for trading or creating the appearance that BIG players are not engaging in fractional reserves- or they may just admit that they are engaging in fractional reserves, which might cause even more push towards keeping your own keys and causing a premium on those who are keeping their own keys.

Quote from: Majormax on November 25, 2019, 09:38:09 AM

Unfortunately, the outcome will take around a year to define .

Could take longer if such shenanigans are attempted during this fractal cycle to attempt to demoralize those who are believing in the 4-year fractal cycle.

Quote from: Majormax on November 25, 2019, 09:38:09 AM

As always, it will be a test of faith, so doubters should sell now, and hodlers should find some other diversion for their interest !

You said that a few times before, especially in late 2018 before it was confirmed that we had been in a bear market (after the November halvening of BTC price), and so far currently, since about May, we are still confirmed to be in a bull market, so there could be some fireworks here that people interested in BTC would like to witness... and yeah we could go back down to a bear market, but probably we would need to get down into the sub $5ks and likely even below our April 1 breakout price of $4,200.. which could be a bit of a challenge to get there. NOT impossible, but surely a challenge.