Quote from: bitinlet on February 24, 2014, 06:15:15 PM

Quote from: QueenElizabeth on February 23, 2014, 05:29:45 PM

IMHO it's going to be very hard to forecast the price of cryptos based on aggregate daily information. I never paid attention to order books for cryptos other than Bitcoin, but in the case of Bitcoin, a lot of wild swings have happened within a single day, driven by the sequence of large orders. I think your best bet would be any methodology for high-frequency panel data where you analyze order books in real time.

First, thanks for responding.

I understand your point, and it's a good one. I'm kinda upset because I was hoping for a better source, to just try this sort of thing. I do think it would be possible to model crypto prices based on certain data points using daily data, the unfortunate reality is - ALL of the useful data (other variables) is impossible to obtain. I mean, figuring out mining related info for every coin and creating a unique system to quantify each across the spectrum of all crypto coins is just too difficult.

So, to simplify, the variables I have are price, market cap, volume and supply. I'm gathering these from coinmarketcap. I do feel that one can predict price changes from changes in these variables. I'm already beginning the process of proving this. What good could this do? Well, knowing the potential magnitude could be very useful. In fact, the regression coefficients could be used to predict price-changes. That said, I agree that ideally high-frequency would be preferred. My issue is I'm a statistician, not a programmer. So, obtaining this high-frequency data, to analyze in real time, isn't really possible for me.

For my purposes, it needs to be averaged data, unfortunately. Any ideas on this that could help, let me know. And thanks again!

Ideally every bitcoin based cryptocurrency has a fixed number of new coins being mined every day. You can easily calculate this just by knowing block reward and block time.
As for the information about price and volume there are sites that collect this data. If they dont help you, you can write a simple program using api privided by the exchanges and start collecting data yourself. If you cant code yourself, there are complete applications on the internet that do this.