Bitcoin Miner Capitulation Is Here... Back Down To $3,800?

Quote from: Charles Edwards - Hash Ribbons & Bitcoin Bottoms

Updated December 26th 2019 with relevant back-testing and bullish setup, original post can be seen below:

Daily chart 2011-2015 - Reliably signaled bullish price movement following recovery of miner capitulation with price follow through:

Signals (2011-2013):
$4.08, December 27th 2011 (1)
$5.09, May 20th 2012 (2)
$6.46, June 22nd 2012 (3)
$20.55, February 2nd 2013 (4)

Daily chart 2015-2019 - recently signaled second buy of the year as highlighted in green:

Signals (2015-2019):
$234, January 28th 2015 (5)
$234, May 2nd 2015 (6)
$238 May 28th 2015 (7)
$612, September 4th 2016 (8)
$3652, January 11th 2019 (9)
$7245, December 27th 2019 (10)

Average of 1 buy signal per year in the past 9 years. 2 buy signals have occurred in the past 3 years.

Weekly chart - recently signaled second buy of the year as highlighted in green:

Signals (2011-2019):
$5.28, December 26th 2011 (1)
$6.35, June 18th 2012 (2)
$23.80, February 4th 2013 (3)
$227, January 26th 2015 (4)
$231, May 25th 2015 (5)
$3533, January 7th 2019 (6)
$7385, December 30th 2019 (7)

Average of 1 buy signal every 18 months in the past 9 years. 2 signals have occurred in the past 3 years.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on December 12, 2019, 06:30:19 PM

Regarding the indicator, it is by default based on the 30 and 60 SMA's of hash rate. Therefore, as far as I understand with the coding:

When the 30 initially crosses below the 60 (bearish) that creates the red area whereby the indicator signals the beginning miner capitulation (shown by the title "capitulation").
When the 30 is rising back towards the 60, we see the red area shrink (as shown with the green dots), as capitulation is losing momentum.
When the 30 is again trending downwards away from the 60 (that it previously crossed), we then see the transparent dots signalling continued "miner capitulation".
When the 30 crosses back above the 60, indicating an exhaustion of miner capitulation, ~~we then receive the "Buy Signal" (as shown above in blue)~~

Quote from: dragonvslinux on December 26, 2019, 01:21:18 PM

after studying the source code of the indicator, it's clear that one requirement of the buy signal is bullish price movement, hence no buy signal from this indicator yet.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on January 07, 2020, 11:51:55 AM

Just noticed the Monthly chart is now signalling a buy, although obviously the month would have to close at current prices for this to hold:
This would be the first buy signal since October 2016 at $709, as well as 7th buy signal in 9 years Cool

Original post:
Disclaimer: Don't shoot the messenger or indicator
I'm posting this not necessarily because I believe it will happen, but for educational purposes.
See related education: Bitcoin repeating history with descending triangle & other indicators TA series.

Source: Trading View, November 28th 2019.

The chart speaks for itself. The extrapolated price comes from the "2018 miner capitulation" that caused the price to drop 50%. Will we go back to $3,800? Unlikely, but clearly this is possible if the capitulation is as aggressive as 2018. Notably the VPVR is supporting the price target of $3,800, as is the extrapolation, with forecasted price for the block halving in May 2020 above $6K followed by another swift recovery and subsequent bull-run.

This isn't the first theory regarding price forming a higher low double bottom instead of holding the $5-6K area. As published last month, the 50 & 200 Day death cross [Part 10] also resulted in a 50% drop in price in 2014 and 2018, implying a 50% probability of such an outcome (using 4 sets of available data).

Credit to Willy Woo for the Bitcoin Difficulty Ribbon chart and the Hash Ribbons indicator by capriole_charles.

Quote from: capriole_charles

Buying during Miner Capitulation yields wonderful returns.

Top quotes:

Quote from: stompix on January 02, 2020, 11:15:14 PM

Yup, you nailed it again...

Quote from: gentlemand on November 28, 2019, 02:26:05 PM

Anyone who uses mining for price predictions turns into an instant prick in my book.

Quote from: stompix on December 06, 2019, 01:21:38 AM

I can hardly find a worse indicator other than the number of horses that have taken a dump on the track at Kempton.

Quote from: fullhdpixel on January 07, 2020, 05:30:43 PM

Honestly, it was a good call and the price kept on increasing, if you bought bitcoin one week ago and now sold you would have made 10% profit.

Disclosure: The author of this TA holds approximately 60% of wealth in cryptocurrency, 92% allocated to Bitcoin, and will continue to heavily accumulate between the $4.8K to $6.8K range, as well as for 6 months DCA leading up to the block reward halving until May 14th 2019.

Own work: dragononcrypto