Quote from: LoyceV on December 01, 2019, 09:09:34 PM

Although I could try to answer all those questions, there's a much simpler way: extrapolation!

Nice attempt! I expect it will drop further, so my nominated number is again 100 blocks less. Wink

Quote from: LoyceV on December 01, 2019, 09:09:34 PM

Unless this was for Beginners only? The title makes it look that way, but the rest of the topic doesn't look like it.

Of course it's open for everyone! Wink

But you are somehow right, the title is a bit misleading, I meant "giveaway for beginner's education".
Do you have some suggestions to improve it? Note: characters are limited, only 10 left.

@mikeywith
Also a nice explanation, but I have to disagree because my number is 610,375 Wink

Quote from: mikeywith on December 01, 2019, 11:05:58 PM

Quote from: LoyceV on December 01, 2019, 09:09:34 PM

the hashrate has to continue dropping

Which never happens "sadly"
...

I can agree for long-term consideration because mining hardware is always getting more effective ("moores law") and as a result, the hashrate is going up. However, I'm not sure if that applies for the next weeks, when the giveaway is relevant. I'm speculating for a lower BTC-price and therefore a lower hashrate and slower block creation. =)

We are at a price range now where it's likely that another drop of hashrate might occur at any time when price drops further:

https://btc.com/stats/diff

For me, (I'm not involved in mining) it looks like that some miners aren't making much profit right now and consider to shut down.

Quote from: mikeywith on December 01, 2019, 11:05:58 PM

Most people have this misconception about bitcoin price vs hashrate/difficulty , this is normal for people who are not heavily invested in mining , but if you have been mining for long enough then you know that theory is invalid.

But the question is: will these normal people win the giveaway? Tongue

Quote from: mikeywith on December 01, 2019, 11:05:58 PM

BTC had a few tragic bear markets, hashrate never really had , hashrate seldom goes down, it stays flat for a while and then move up, Bitmain is due to ship a dozen of mining gears during this month (pre-order) , and my guess is that even if price keeps going lower , hashrate will only go higher for months to come, unless something out of the ordinary happens.

It'll be interesting to see what's happening when the halving is coming should the price stay around similar levels like right now.

Quote from: mikeywith on December 01, 2019, 11:05:58 PM

If I may, i would add a "cheat" tool for this giveaway , this tool predicts the next difficulty , sadly it's less efficient for long term since the deadline is 06.12.2019, this other tool contains historical data inculding number of blocks found in each round, not really the best way to estimate a block that's a month away, but a good tool to give you an "outside the box" view of how this difficulty thing actually effects the block production.

Yeah, I'm using BTC.com normally and as far as I know it's a good source.

Quote from: mikeywith on December 01, 2019, 11:05:58 PM

@miau sorry for this long post, I tried to stay on topic as much as i could , I just can't help not posting when it's anything mining related, I will post my guess later after discussing the matter with Jihan Wu. Grin

I like detailed and insightful posts and it's actually what I've hoped for as outcome of my giveaway, so don't worry at all. Your comment is much appreciated. Wink

Looking forward to your number!