Quote from: Bossian on December 03, 2019, 02:08:00 PM

Quote from: sgbett on December 03, 2019, 02:02:37 PM

Quote from: Bossian on December 03, 2019, 01:25:01 PM

The death cross was deadly and will give us bad years for at least 2020 and 2021, we need a reversal in 2022-2023, because otherwise I tend to agree with you, nothing bullish to be seen anytime soon. Still money to be made if you are a skilled trader.

Maybe for others, not for me

I'm no trader. What I post here is *definitely* not trading advice

Well when I see your chart posted in the first pages here, that was a good tool to make money.

Posted in February 2018

The chart was not perfect but it clearly predicted the peak of mid-2019. Frankly impressive, one of the best "long term" prediction I have seen. Hope you followed your own advice

On topic, even though you are no trader I think the forum would appreciate your unbiased opinion as the following months unfold, even though unpopular opinions (= bearish views) are not appreciated by everyone here.

Thanks, It's still got some to play out. If it continue to slide through 2020 then by the end of the year I'll probably consider myself as having called it.

It's hard to know what my "unbiased opinion" would be nowadays. When I made the original call it was just about the way group psychology plays out during sell offs. So it could apply to any coin, whether I believed in them or not. It wasn't because I believed bitcoin had failed, but because I had just seen a run-up and thought that it should be possible to predict how the sell of would progress... so far so good.

To make any further forecast about price once we hit that $2500 region is difficult, because then the price is more a reflection of fundamentals i.e. the s-curve of adoption.

So that would mean looking at usage, and future utility. Whether or not will continue to grow in adoption. I think Bitcoin will, more so than ever now I know about the ins and outs of SCRIPT (mind blown btw) and the ways in which it is possible to scale massively on-chain. The projects being built on BSV are just a taste of what is to come - staunch BTC supporters mock them, not realising what these projects represent - they are the "Hello, world!" type applications you create when you first learn a new technology. They are proofs of concepts, they are the Webcrawlers, the Altavistas, the Compuserves. BSV facilitates this because of its philosophy of acting as a dumb protocol on the base layer. BSVs stated goal is to do this within the existing legal and regulatory frameworks. This makes a lot of sense given the history of cryptocurrency (I'm talking about pre-bitcoin) if you don't know the pre-history its worth knowing because it underpins why Bitcoin is a public ledger, and why it does not facilitate anonymous transactions.

Over in Bitcoin, I see some of the innovation coming out of Blockstream and I see continued development of LN protocol. However these innovations change the very nature of the BTC network/blockchain. Keeping a block size limit (1mb or otherwise) has ramifications such as perverting the incentive mechanism meaning that the mining fees do not naturally replace thee block reward over time. Pushing tx off chain into LN not only deprives miners of fees (further dis-incentivising them from mining), but it opens up legal ramifications on node operators. Furthermore it takes then network from being a sybil resistant hyper-connected network of miners, to one which the Lightning Network white paper (yes I have read that too) itself describes as "Eventually, with optimizations, the network will look a lot like the correspondent banking network, or Tier-1 ISPs."

source: https://lightning.network/lightning-network-paper.pdf (Section 8.4 Payment Routing, pp48)

So my previous forecast of run ups have all had this inherent bias towards Bitcoin's success. I still have that bias, as outlined above with what I see happening on BSV right now.

If I believed BTC still had the same value proposition as Bitcoin I'd tell you that the bottom at 2500 would precede a couple years slow growth which would take you back to maybe $10k and then you'd probably get another run up to 6 figures maybe $150k or something. Which would eventually top and there would be another one of these correction cycles.

However because I beleive that BTC no longer has that value proposition, then that leads me to believe that their is no price support from the s-curve of adoption base value. So unless something changes with respect to BTC's usage, adoption and/or utility then sadly I do not think its price will recover.

The worst part of all, is that the market will probably just carry on dragging along for a while (maybe not until 2050 eh fabiorem? I have a little faith that people are smart enough that they will figure out what is going on before then. By that I mean the world outside of Bitcointalk Wink

) so even my "beloved" BSV will likely suffer as the slide continues.

Although, when that bonded courier turns up, things could change pretty fast