Quote from: Betwrong on December 11, 2019, 08:14:53 AM

Quote from: deisik on December 10, 2019, 10:10:47 AM

For example, we can't understand what self-awareness and consciousness as one's mind and thoughts are because we simply don't have such an ability in us. Simply put, it is not so much for the lack of knowledge as for the lack of required capacity to process and interpret this knowledge. The same may be equally true for randomness (and probably a host of other phenomena). We are like ants trying to figure out things outside an anthill

So, is there a hope? I mean, currently, it is considered that with any truly random processes absolutely anything can happen next. If you just hit 99.99 on dice it doesn't mean you won't hit the same number again in the very next roll

You likely won't hit the same number again

But given that there is in fact a certain form of "memory" (I actually like how you came up with this term), the chances of hitting the next number close to that first roll seem to be higher. Speaking generally, "not having memory" should be equally applicable to both ends of the rolling spectrum, i.e. to the roll before and the roll after (i.e. hitting 0.02 is as likely, or unlikely, as hitting 99.98 after that first roll). However, if there weren't some "short-range" memory (not speaking about dice here), you would inevitably face a uniform distribution, which is not random (read, you can in fact use these irregularities to your advantage, though not sure about dice)

Quote from: Betwrong on December 11, 2019, 08:14:53 AM

They say, random processes "do not have memory", and thus it is impossible for past outcomes to affect future ones. So, while certain patterns are undoubtedly being formed, we can see them only post factum?

"Post factum" here starts right after you see the first outcome (which your betting example proves). In other words, if you rolled high, bet on high next time (and vice versa). However, keep in mind that the house edge may still offset the tiny skew you are trying to exploit with this approach. Moreover, the outcomes in dice might in fact be pretty close to uniform after all (read, they are not truly random)

Quote from: Darker45 on December 09, 2019, 01:38:30 PM

And it is also lovely how a seemingly simple gambling question quickly escalated into a metaphysical one

Strictly speaking, I started this thread specifically with "metaphysical" in mind. Gambling just happens to be the closest to it, apart from being the right place where to discuss these questions

Quote from: Darker45 on December 09, 2019, 01:38:30 PM

If we look for absolute randomness, I am afraid there is none. Not in a toss of a coin or a roll of a dice, not even in the movements of the atoms in a single object, and not in the workings of the universe. Everything factored in, there is no result which we can consider an absolute random one

If we are really like ants from the post above, the problem goes far beyond that