Quote from: deisik on December 10, 2019, 10:10:47 AM

Quote from: Betwrong on December 10, 2019, 09:06:29 AM

Quote from: deisik on December 05, 2019, 02:03:22 PM

~ you noticed a pattern, and had been exploiting it for some time. But since bets are random (allegedly), the patterns are random too (necessarily), so it shouldn't in fact have surprised you (had you been aware of this intrinsic property of genuine randomness at the time) that your "strategy" stopped working after some time as another pattern had most certainly revealed itself (which you failed to discover and take advantage of). Patterns are random, but their existence itself is not random at all. It is a feature of a truly random distribution

But the discovery of such patterns can happen only by chance, right? And we have no way of knowing how long they are going to last, right? Or, are we just in the early stage of understanding how it really works? What if the ancient philosopher Democritus, who formulated an atomic theory of the universe around 400 BC, was right saying that randomness is a subjective concept that originated from the inability of humans to understand the nature of events?

I've been thinking about that too

That randomness only exists in our heads partly as an answer to our inability to explain certain events (that we conveniently consider random) but even more so because our reasoning powers in general may be limited. I mean we can't "understand the nature of events" because of the limits of our potential for understanding itself. In other words, we can't explain randomness as it lies beyond our understanding in principle

For example, we can't understand what self-awareness and consciousness as one's mind and thoughts are because we simply don't have such an ability in us. Simply put, it is not so much for the lack of knowledge as for the lack of required capacity to process and interpret this knowledge. The same may be equally true for randomness (and probably a host of other phenomena). We are like ants trying to figure out things outside an anthill

So, is there a hope? I mean, currently, it is considered that with any truly random processes absolutely anything can happen next. If you just hit 99.99 on dice it doesn't mean you won't hit the same number again in the very next roll. They say, random processes "do not have memory", and thus it is impossible for past outcomes to affect future ones. So, while certain patterns are undoubtedly being formed, we can see them only post factum?