Quote from: somac. on December 10, 2019, 10:17:10 AM

Quote from: bitserve on December 10, 2019, 07:48:57 AM

Also I am still fearful that so much expectation from so many people about the halving could not result in the expected outcome and when I see "predictions" for the next 2-5 years like $50K, $100K and over I get nervous. Well, we will see. Whatever it has to be, just let it be. I will just HODL (and try to sell *some* when the ~~time~~ price comes).

I remember the period before the halving in 2016, and I can assure you there were just as many predictions (on a per capita basis, bitcoin community was much smaller then with little mainstream pickup) about how the price was going to boom. The only difference this time is that they are putting lofty price targets along with the prediction. It seems that the only reason why these price predictions are happening this time is because of the very popular stock to flow analysis by PlanB.

I am not fearful at all, and anyone who has an understanding about supply constricted markets shouldn't be fearful either.

I was somewhat inactive during the period 2014-2015 but it is my impression that there were more doom and gloom in comparison to this period. If too many people decides to keep hodling/buying just because of those predictions and when the time comes the outcome doesn't materialise -> problem.

The stock to flow analysis by PlanB is nice but it is just a model which could perfectly be wrong. Also, even if the *additional* supply is halved and it should have an impact on price, that amount is only a small part of the free float (which can and does change vastly depending on many other factors like FOMO/PANIC).

DOn't get me wrong... my money is on Bitcoin eventually reaching a new ATH in maybe less than 2 years after the halving. I just don't have the confidence to take it for granted nor do I feel the need to do so as I can do both fear and HODL at the same time.