Quote from: Gyfts on December 11, 2019, 03:05:37 AM

Quote from: eddie13 on December 11, 2019, 02:32:21 AM

Quote from: Gyfts on December 11, 2019, 02:19:22 AM

General Election: Trump vs. Biden:       Biden 51, Trump 42
General Election: Trump vs. Sanders:      Sanders 51, Trump 43
General Election: Trump vs. Warren:      Warren 50, Trump 43
General Election: Trump vs. Buttigieg:    Buttigieg 48, Trump 43
General Election: Trump vs. Bloomberg:   Bloomberg 48, Trump 42
General Election: Trump vs. Klobuchar: Klobuchar 47, Trump 43

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/general_election/

It's a bad bet going on Trump for 1:1. You should have done better odds. The democratic nominee isn't even announced yet and and Amy Klobuchar, a candidate polling at less than 1 in democratic primaries percent beats Trump by 4 points.

Like we haven't heard that before..

Most of the polls conducted for the 2016 election were within the statistical margin of error, so it's not like the polls were necessarily wrong.

Also, Trump won by a total of ~50k in a handful of battleground states. Something that would happen in about 8 out of 100 election cycles, per the 92 percent chance of Clinton winning.

I'd prefer Trump over any democratic the DNC will put up but let's not act like Trump isn't in a whole lot of trouble here. If you're counting on a replication of what happened in 2016 where Trump's margin of victory will be the totality of 50k votes across 3 states, I got a bridge to sell you. With the economic numbers Trump is putting up right now, he should be up 10 points against any democratic candidate and his approval rating shouldn't be down 10 points.

Yeah.

Eddie is also confusing polls with models.

A poll doesn't spit out the odds of each candidate to win the electoral college. It just tells you what people responded to the poll, and then some simple math gives you the margin of error.

There's a weird 'fuck the polls' mentality among some Trump supporters, which, I assume stems from Trump actually taking a negative poll as a personal insult from the people that conducted the poll....which seems insane to me.

These polling companies conduct thousands of polls a year. You can look up their records, if they have consistent outliers they lose funding.