Re: Calling top at $16500 (Even Newer!: $2483 bottom 19 Feb 2021 MtGox said so!)
[edited out]
Absolutely correct. Topic was always about BTC price and the forecast was made long before any fork action, purely based on crowd behaviour.
The question as to what happens once the bottom is un remains unanswered, but given I'm suggesting 2021 for that, we have a long way to go.
Sure I had already noticed that you are a lot more short-term bearish than me, and I my investment practices of buying on the way down and selling on the way up does not really attempt to get into any specifics regarding what I might believe the BTC price is going to do in the shorter term, except that I anticipate in the longer term that BTC prices are going to be higher than they are today. So, dragging out to 2021, does seem a bit much, even though I remain prepared in case that scenario plays out.. I am NOT going to change my practices based on something that may or may not happen.. and frankly I believe that the odds for up are greater than the odds for down, currently, maybe it is only slightly greater, but it is still greater from my current thinking.
At that point people might want to reflect on the fundamentals, because as I've said so many times before, speculative run-ups are always predicated by the rising price in line with the s-curve of adoption... e.g this post from 2014
Only when speculation is secondary to base utility price can we establish a new baseline.
...snip...
A. There is an underlying sigmoid function (wikipedia'd that one!) that drives base valuation - the adoption curve.
B. That the market price is some cyclical function underpinned by the base valuation (A).
C. We end with widespread adoption after about 10 years, representing a base value of BTC based on some percentage of the economy. I picked risto's $300k because its as good a figure as any
...snip...
A. There is an underlying sigmoid function (wikipedia'd that one!) that drives base valuation - the adoption curve.
B. That the market price is some cyclical function underpinned by the base valuation (A).
C. We end with widespread adoption after about 10 years, representing a base value of BTC based on some percentage of the economy. I picked risto's $300k because its as good a figure as any
...snip...
Only when speculation is secondary to base utility price can we establish a new baseline.
Hopefully, your measures of utility are correct from your own thinking. Of course, price is a product of both speculation and utility, so I would not want to get too narrowed in on some kinds of price indication necessities (has to be assertions).
For the next speculative BTC run you have to have more adoption than during the last market bottom (ie the 200 range for the best part of 2015). Failure to make new lows is what gives people the confidence to buy again. To catalyse a new speculative run-up you need price to be increasing as result of utility/adoption (since the speculators have left). When adoption is causing higher lows, that's when speculators take note and the cycle begins again.
Back in the day adoption used to be measured by how many coffee shops can you buy bitcoin. Now, I'd be more inclined to look at e.g.business use at scale
YMMV but lets wait until this market cycle is complete and price discovery establishes a new BTC baseline before we talk about the next speculative run-up. You might feel very differently over the coming year(s) as things unfold.
Back in the day adoption used to be measured by how many coffee shops can you buy bitcoin. Now, I'd be more inclined to look at e.g.business use at scale
YMMV but lets wait until this market cycle is complete and price discovery establishes a new BTC baseline before we talk about the next speculative run-up. You might feel very differently over the coming year(s) as things unfold.
Yes, we will see what happens in terms of adoption and/or other pressures upon the supply. Seems to me that bearwhales are going to attempt to manipulate BTC's price down for as low as they can get it to go and for as long as they can. But sometimes they just cannot keep the price down. Whether we need to go lower from here may or not be known until we look back at the situation, and we have seen in previous halvenings, that the real pressures on the price, because of the reduced supply do not become felt until several months after the halvening. I have my doubts about whether BTC prices can remained kept down until 2021, but we will see how it plays out. I would not want to be inadequately prepared for UP in the event that further down does not happen from here... and we have surely witnessed a decent amount of that (lack of preparation for UP) in bitcoin's history.
Accordingly, accumulate and HODL and buying BTC on dips have continued to be the better ongoing long term strategies in bitcoin that have tended to work out quite well for those people following such strategies rather than attempting to time the market such as wait for lower and other fence sitting nonsense like that. Selling after a correction and trying to buy back lower would likely even be a worse strategy that tries to time the market rather than just accumulating holding and buying on dips, but people can do whatever they are going to do... and see how it all plays out for them.