...Cutting production (per block) in half, while cost of production (per block) remains the same, could make mining unprofitable, unless the price rises.
..but it doesn't actually affect the price per se. Mining becomes unprofitable, hashrate falls, difficulty falls. The price drives this action, this action doesn't drive the price. Aggregate demand is always key to price changes, and it dances mainly to other tunes.
Not directly (that's the reason I rephrased my statement earlier). But I believe it does, indirectly. Maybe some miners will be forced to shut down their mining equipment, others could mine at a loss and HoDL their coins, all sorts of complex things can happen, that will be triggered by the halving event. History has shown that each halving has been followed by a huge price rise (even after you iron out the volatility). It may not happen instantly, but history shows that it will happen. Of course, we only had 2 halvings, so there's not much data to work on. Time will tell. And soon.
A relevant quote [
Original Post]:
"The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost. If the price is below cost, then production slows down. If the price is above cost, profit can be made by generating and selling more." -- Satoshi Nakamoto
Edit: Merry Christmas everyone!