Quote from: Hueristic on December 28, 2019, 05:57:25 PM

Thats fine but anyone actually betting on this game is doing nothing but rolling the dice so gleaning information from this thread is meaningless in this context which is the point of the poll as far as i understand it.

Tbh I would never base my picks on something like a poll, so I think this poll in here is just a bit for fun. You could actually use this poll (or any other public poll) as kind of contraindication Wink

I don't think there is something like swarm intelligence when it comes to sportsbetting. The overwhelming majority of betting people is losing longterm, so why would a poll give any +EV insight.

In general it's pretty hard (read: nearly impossible) nowadays to make any kind of money prematch in mainstream leagues. Markets have gotten so tight, every information is available with a few mouse clicks, news spread pretty fast, bookmakers have all statistics available, they have their own algorithms and AI. And the odds are centralized, with a few knowledgeable frontrunners and the rest just copying them.

The people I know, that are making a living out of sportsbetting are either covering non-mainstream leagues/sports (with low-ish limits) or are doing live betting/trading.

Regarding the Steelers@Ravens discussion, I don't think the Ravens are interested that much in the outcome. I can't imagine them or the fans caring too much about winning the last home game - they are in for something bigger this season. They would surely love the Steelers not getting into the PO's, but they don't even need to beat them for that to happen. If Titans win @Texans, the Steelers can do whatever they want and won't get in. And judging by the odds, it seems very likely for the Titans to get the W Wink

Like in any sports, motivation plays a big role. Only point I could make for the Ravens in terms of motivation is their backups that will get a chance to show themselves. Some of these guys will want to prove themselves and maybe play for a new contract or get other teams interested in them. But 5-10 super motivated backups won't do anything, if the rest of the team just plays not to get injured. So these matchups - and we have a few of them today - are always tricky. The best advice is probably to just stay away from them or watch how things unfold live and place a bet accordingly.

Having said that, I still like the Jets ML today Cheesy