Quote from: tyKiwanuka on December 29, 2019, 01:22:09 PM

Tbh I would never base my picks on something like a poll, so I think this poll in here is just a bit for fun. You could actually use this poll (or any other public poll) as kind of contraindication Wink

I don't think there is something like swarm intelligence when it comes to sportsbetting. The overwhelming majority of betting people is losing longterm, so why would a poll give any +EV insight.

I would be interested to know how the threads picks have done over the season, i will bet the poll has a winning record. I will look at it if I am uncertain but not as a starting point but rather as a confirmation of my thoughts and if it is opposed i will try to figure out why by the posts themselves.

I find this thread pretty knowledgeable, especially compared to other ones.

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In general it's pretty hard (read: nearly impossible) nowadays to make any kind of money prematch in mainstream leagues.

True but getting in before the mainstream moves the line is the whole point and thats where DYOR comes in like this thread.

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Markets have gotten so tight, every information is available with a few mouse clicks, news spread pretty fast, bookmakers have all statistics available, they have their own algorithms and AI. And the odds are centralized, with a few knowledgeable frontrunners and the rest just copying them.

Placing a bet 5 minutes before the game is usually the absolutely worst time unless there is a major situational change.

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The people I know, that are making a living out of sportsbetting are either covering non-mainstream leagues/sports (with low-ish limits) or are doing live betting/trading.

I doubt anyone in this thread is making a living off of sports betting and if they were they have better resources and they probally would not be sharing them as it would dilute their edge.

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...The best advice is probably to just stay away from them or watch how things unfold live and place a bet accordingly.

Yup

Quote from: morvillz7z on December 29, 2019, 04:01:12 PM

My picks for today, all singles:

Titans (-6.5) - Texans will not play Watson (i'm not sure who their back up is but it doesn't really matter) Hopkins and Fuller are out too.
Packers Halftime/Fulltime - Packers need this to ensure first-round bye and if 49ers lose, to clinch NFC 1st seed and homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs
Eagles (-3.5) - 3 game winning streak, i can't really see them lose here, hopefully they cover the spread
Bills ML - I'm not entirely sure if Bills are going to rest their key guys, rumors are Allen will play only play 1 quarter, regardless i like them better.
Ravens/Steelers Total turnovers (incl. overtime) O 3.5 - Seems like an easy task for both RGIII and Hodges. Rudolph/Connor are out.

gl everyone!

Nice job.