A Self-fulfilling Financial Forecast

The following model case is extracted from Martin Armstrong's subscription only Private Blog, Posted Dec 7, 2019.

It documents how a financial forecast is constructed to be always true but worthless.

Here is how: We are in December 2019.


  1) If the DOW goes higher than 28,174 then it may reach 30,000 (7.1% rise).
  2) If the DOW goes higher as in 1), and if after January it declines, then the DOW made a high in January.
  3) If the DOW made a high in January as in 2) then it could decline in the 1st quarter 2021.

Obviously, the above three statements are always true. In particular, 3) is true because the definition of a date-constrained high is that before and after it, the price must be lower. The original post:

"if it exceeds the November high, then it can rally into the ECM and test the 30,000 level. We must be concerned that a high in conjunction with that model could point to a sharp correction into the 1st quarter 2012."

Notice "could".

The ECM target date for the high is 18 January (the date constraint for the high).

Martin Armstrong is quite aware of this self-fulfilling feature because he implies with great confidence that the ECM is always correct (cannot be proven false):

Quote from: Gumbi on December 29, 2019, 03:49:29 PM

...
If we see a high in line with the ECM the market has to go down or the ECM will be proven to be completely false. ...

It is like selling 1=1 as a forecast.

Quote from: s29 on February 12, 2020, 03:46:55 PM

Martin A. Armstrong: convicted felon, shameless conman, schizophrenic crackpot & financial comedian

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud.

See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.