Quote from: jkpj22 on January 01, 2020, 10:17:23 AM

Hello everyone and thank you for this discussion. I was about to pay for Socrates and then I found this website Undecided

I am more concerned about Armstrong's long term predictions, let's go over them:

-Euro is gonna collapse, European Union will fall
-Dollar is gonna go up a lot
-Dow Jones will keep going up to 35000 points, because with negative interest rates in Europe that's where the money will go
-Despite the strong dollar, Gold will go up significantly because of people won't trust the governments anymore.
-Copper will go up because of electric vehicles and demand in China.
-Emerging markets are gonna pop up because of strong dollar, they won't be able to pay the debt denominated in dollars.
-Thanks to colding, commodities like corn will go up because of bad harvest (it already happened in 2019)

How do you feel about these claims?

In any case, before you are taking the leap of faith to buy a Socrates subscription based on the success of some prediction like corn going up because of global cooling which has not been predicted by his models but someone else's model, I would suggest you judge Socrates on its own merits, such as track records like Monthly Reversal Failures December 2018 and Quarterly Superposition Event in Gold 2015.

Regarding the claims you are listing, let me address one as an example:

The emerging markets meltdown prediction.

Before I start, it is useful to know the fact that Martin Armstrong rarely predicts anything in a verifiable way.

He often systematically creates conditions around his statements that render them worthless. See

A Self-fulfilling Financial Forecast

However, in case of the emerging markets, he predicted a meltdown as early as 2016 with a target date of 2018. Obviously it did not happen. No emerging markets meltdown.

Here are excerpts from some of his publications:

Quote

Private blog
Gold and the March High
By: Marty Armstrong
Tuesday, April 12, 2016
...
The concerns are pensions and Europe not to mention emerging markets where the example of Brazil as such a success story is turning into a nightmare that may result in the impeachment of its head of state. The collapse in emerging markets will significantly hurt pensions who bought dollar denominated debt to get some return when domestic rates when to effectively zero.
...

Quote

Video 2016-06-12
December Gold Update
https://vimeo.com/194098838
...
I have been saying constantly here, is that the only way that's going to happen is for an extremely strong Dollar. It's the higher Dollar that will cause the default in the emerging markets, it's the higher Dollar that will cause basically Europe to start to really disintegrate because all capital will be attracted here. The Federal Reserve will most likely raise interest rates trying to stop the stock market from rising to be criticized for this and the press is always on top of Donald Trump constantly. So we probably call this, oh, he is making a rally to make himself rich and all his buddies. It has nothing to do with that, this is a global world capital flow situation, and we are looking at effectively the drop of the world monetary system which can come into play as early as 2018, we may end up with the Dollar not being the reserve currency by 2020.
...

Quote

Fractal Nature of Trading
Posted Nov 25, 2016 by Martin Armstrong
...
I have been warning that we face a major dollar rally. Only such a rally will break the back of the world economy. A lower dollar will bailout the Emerging Markets where a high dollar will create sovereign defaults around the globe.
...

Quote

Private Blog

Gold in the Aftermath of French Election
By: Marty Armstrong
Tuesday, May 9, 2017
...
Keep in mind that we still face the potential of a major dollar rally and can blow the doors off of emerging market debt.
...

Quote

Private Blog

Canadian Dollar Update
By: Marty Armstrong
Wednesday, July 12, 2017
...

The Monetary Crisis appears to start in 2018 and we will need to wait for the German elections in September before this Year From Political Hell concludes. Only then will we see the surge into the greenback and that will set the stage for extreme economic pressure upon everyone, including Trump. A strong dollar will defeat Trump's idea of creating jobs. It will also push emerging markets over the edge.
...

Quote

Private Blog

The Markets for the Week of 10/15/2018
By: Marty Armstrong
Monday, October 15, 2018
...
The other economic areas, especially emerging markets, are coming under pressure and remain hopeless insofar as reversing the future. They took advantage of low interest rates to sell debt to particularly pensions and they denominated that debt in dollars to make the sales. So as the interest rates rise and the dollar, Emerging Markets are simply tottering on the edge of a cliff with no hope of avoiding the fall.
...

Quote

Market Talk- October 22, 2018
...
The rush for US funding at year end is likely to be extreme. Emerging markets are in meltdown yet no-one wants to admit it.
...

If you had shorted emerging markets at this point according to the above definite statement, this would have been a disaster trade.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud.

See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog