Quote from: jkpj22 on January 02, 2020, 08:09:49 AM

I just wanna know, what is your opinion on these claims:

-Euro is gonna collapse, European Union will fall
-Dollar is gonna go up a lot
-Dow Jones will keep going up to 35000 points, because with negative interest rates in Europe that's where the money will go
-Despite the strong dollar, Gold will go up significantly because of people won't trust the governments anymore.
-Copper will go up because of electric vehicles and demand in China.
-Emerging markets are gonna pop up because of strong dollar, they won't be able to pay the debt denominat

So in other words, I don't care when this shit is gonna happen according to Armstrong,
I feel like some of these claims will happen because of the nature of the things in the markets and I wanna know how you guys feel about this.

Can you tell me which of these claims make sense to you?

Only because it is the NY and you insist, I will give you my thoughts, and tie it back to MA's ECM, which is essentially what he uses (allegedly) to predict such socioeconomic flash points:

-Euro is gonna collapse, European Union will fall
MA claims the euro is structurally flawed, and I find his explanation logical and agreeable, though it is almost impossible to verify his theory. Whether it will collapse - who knows? Even USD went through serious problems in its first few decades and if the euro collapses, so too does the world economy, so I would rather it not even though I am anti-EU.

IMF has urged the EU to move to a digital currency, something MA has written about, and that may be the evolution of the currency, which would extend its life. No currency in human history has lasted the test of time, so will the euro and even USD exist in another 50 years? Quite likely. In 200 years? Probably not. It really is anyone's guess what will happen and I am not convinced MA and his "machine" know either.

Ditto political unions. They too have not lasted and commonly end in some kind of conflict. I do not expect the EU to still exist in 50 years time, where already there are deep fractures across the bloc from economic, to social and cultural. Every pillar of society has conflict in the EU and that is what will tear it apart. Again, the date of that is anyone's guess, and I have become increasingly unconvinced that the ECM truly is "accurate to the day" or even useful.

-Dollar is gonna go up a lot
Depends entirely on the currency pair and how far back in time you go to smooth out volatility. Despite all the shrieks about Brexit trashing GBP/USD, GBP has lost value against USD for every decade since 1871; and against the EUR, every 5 years since 1999. GBP has never regained its former highs. So in some ways, predictions like these are a sure fire bet based on historic trends - MA and his Socrates not needed - but it will one day reverse, which is also based on historic trends. USD will remain strong for as long as the US is an economic superpower. Once China predictably takes the baton, USD will begin weakening perhaps for as long as it has been strengthening (150 years) or until a new currency is created.

Generally, the "world" currency appreciates with the rise and fall of civilisations. Pre-US empire, sterling hit all time highs up until the British empire ended after WWII. The Dutch guilder rocketed and then tanked in line with the Dutch empire, which ended mid 17th Century.

The same fate awaits USD. Again, MA and his "machine" not needed to predict this. Like how there will definitely be another recession in the future. It WILL happen. When it happens - who knows?

-Dow Jones will keep going up to 35000 points, because with negative interest rates in Europe that's where the money will go
Again, anyone's guess and MA has continually called the Dow highs wrong. His predictions seem no better than any other analyst. Where sovereign debt is bankrupting nation states, and so making safe havens like bonds toxic, then it does make sense for big money to buy up significant chunks of private assets, which would include blue chips on the Dow. The EU has major issues, but any flight of capital to US stocks is probably more to do with the likelihood of future returns + FX fluctuations favouring USD + diversifying portfolios, rather than snubbing equities listed on EU bourses because of interest rates, which doesn't make much sense.

-Despite the strong dollar, Gold will go up significantly because of people won't trust the governments anymore.
If citizens no longer trust government then commonly revolution/civil war breaks out. Not sure how much use gold will be then and even if it does spike, the malaise will be such you probably won't be selling it; by the time society goes back to normal, the price will fall and you'd end up where you started. Rather than double guess any of this, the best traders/hedge funds have diversified portfolios for reason, including investments in precious metals. So really your portfolio should be structured in such a way that if one asset class unexpectedly tanks, another spikes. You buy your portfolio assets regularly (weekly or monthly) meaning you buy on the way up and down. Over the long term, it averages out to a large gain with compound interest factored in (inflation, dividend reinvestment). At that point, you won't care what the asset is as you are still making money and it is part of your portfolio strategy.

-Copper will go up because of electric vehicles and demand in China.
Who knows and I don't know enough about metals to make any claim and certainly wouldn't invest in it. Can't recall much MA content about copper. If I wanted exposure to metals, I would buy a fund. Again, this goes back to my above point about a carefully structured and diversified portfolio, investing in things you understand.

At the 2018 WEC, MA was quite adamant the period of 2020-2024 would be very bullish for commodities, and so very good for the AU and CA stock markets. Hence, the takeaway would be buy an index of the main AU and CA markets now. Sell them in 2024.

However, a similar prediction/forecast from years back was about failed crop harvests and the rising price of food. However, checking some of the main agricultural indexes, and they have continued declining, making a bad trade: https://us.spindices.com/indices/commodities/sp-gsci-agriculture

I would be very cautious investing even in indexes of CA and AU, but MA was VERY adamant they would be good investment markets for the first 4 years of the 20s.

Let's see if his Jan 18 2020 forecast comes to pass...
While the ECM is turning in January 2020, that appears to be impacting more externally to Europe. Europe may see economic turmoil into 2021.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/europe-how-bad-can-this-get/

-Emerging markets are gonna pop up because of strong dollar, they won't be able to pay the debt denominat
Also impossible to properly verify, though this MA theory is interesting. It makes sense. Some emerging markets have actually strengthened against USD (Thai baht), meaning they are now finding it easier to pay down USD denominated debt. It isn't linear or a one-way bet of USD good, all other currencies bad. Almost all nations are in huge debt, but currency is essentially backed up by GDP, so those nations with the greatest economic output will have more resilient currencies. That too makes sense and has historical precedence.

Notice how none of the above requires consuming MA's content or acting upon potentially flawed / bogus ECM "forecasts"?...