Quote from: pooya87 on January 08, 2020, 06:19:46 AM

Quote from: kotajikikox on January 08, 2020, 05:56:56 AM

there is something wrong about the Pump
usually Prices goes up after the Halving and Not before right?

wrong and wrong.
this is not a pump and price has always gone up before the halving, dropped right before halving (meaning a week or so to halving), stayed down a while through halving and then rose again in about a month.

<...>

While I do agree with your analysisy (how couldn't I agree with facts?) I think this time is going to be different.
I think now people/investors/hodlers are well more aware of halving mechanism, greatly thanks to PlanB articles (I started a thread about those article a while a go: Stock To Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity ). It is true that halvings are not still entirely priced in, this is a model and not certainity, after all, but more awareness of the impact of halving on the price dynamics could lead to an improved price outlook coming into halving, and a limited downside in the aftermath.

Regarding the correlated move in oli/gold and bitcoin, I think we are referring to this graph:

https://twitter.com/Travis_Kling/status/1214695361320669185

provided the timeframe is too narrow to state there is a significant correlation, a reason might be a note released by Golman Sachs:
Geopolitical news made investors going to buy safe investments.
Today Goldman Sachs told his client that: "Gold is a better Geopolitical hedge than Oil" and "Gold is the geopolitical hedge of last resort"

Quote

We found that spikes in geopolitical tensions lead to higher gold prices when they are severe enough to cause currency debasement (see the geopolitical hedge of last resort). This most often happens during wars or military escalations. Accordingly, we found that gold performed well, even controlling for real rates and dollar weakness, during the beginning of both Gulf wars and during the events of September 11, 2001. Therefore, additional escalation in US-Iranian tensions could further boost gold prices. All in all, we stick with our 3, 6 and 12m forecast of $1,600/toz but see upside risks if geopolitical tensions worsen.

Quote

We find that gold can effectively hedge against geopolitical risk if the geopolitical
event is extreme enough that it leads to some sort of currency debasement, and
especially if the gold price move is much sharper than the move in real rates or
the dollar.

So Gold is rising more than oil.
Digital Gold is raising more than physical gold.

Actually a few hours later:

Quote

Fresh all time highs for gold in euros.

45,266 a kilo

https://twitter.com/JanGold_/status/1214089342626541573?s=20

Also on Bloomberg:

Gold Nears Six-Year High as Mideast Tensions Spur Haven Demand

Quote

Gold neared a six-year high after a U.S. airstrike killed one of Irans most powerful generals, ratcheting up tensions in the Middle East and driving demand for havens.

Bullion rallied as much as 1.6% to $1,553.52 an ounce in the spot market, reaching the highest since September. Platinum futures briefly topped $1,000 an ounce to touch the highest since early 2018 in New York, while silver and other haven assets rose.