Quote from: djsugar on January 11, 2020, 02:21:14 PM

Quote from: Betwrong on January 11, 2020, 11:27:12 AM

~There is another topic here showing(or, rather, reminding us) that the price not necessarily rises the same year. It can take a year, or even more than that, for the market to "feel" the the shortage of 27,000 newly minted coins every month. That's right, 27k less BTC will be produced each month after the halving. I think it should have some effect on the market, sooner or later.

I don't know how to make sense out of this. With the same supply per month, Bitcoin was $500 as well as $20k. Halving will not have much effect because you can't put the demand in numbers here. The speculation before halving will make people FOMO and that will most probably lead to the price rise. Halving in itself won't have much effect.

Well, some people say that the 2017's sharp rising resulted from the previous halving in July 2016. It just took some time before the 2016's halving had its effect.

Also, the thing is that all the newly minted coins is not exactly "supply", because:
1. Not all of them immediately appear on the market;
2. The selling orders and the coins that are sold each day in response to buying orders, that's the real supply.

So, we can't say that we had the same supply when BTC was $550 in August 2016, and when it went up to $20k more than a year later. In fact, we can say, even without looking that up, that the supply was shorter or the demand was greater, but the situation was definitely not the same.