Quote from: o_e_l_e_o on January 20, 2020, 05:50:33 PM

Quote from: jseverson on January 20, 2020, 02:33:41 PM

-snip-

Sure, but as well as missing some opportunities, you also miss some big pull backs. That's the point - to smooth your entry price over time and bring it as close to the "average" as possible. If you have no desire to try to time the markets or read the charts, then it's a perfectly acceptable way for newbies to get involved in crypto.

The articles you have linked talk about DCA in the scenario of stocks and the S&P 500. These assets aren't as volatile as bitcoin, and the S&P 500 index (for example) has been on a pretty steady upward trajectory for the last 10 years. In these cases, I agree that DCA is probably a worse choice. In bitcoin, however, when the price can drop by $1000 in under an hour completely unexpectedly, then DCA helps to reduce that risk.

There's a DCA site for bitcoin as well here (https://dcabtc.com/) where you can play around with the numbers. Even if you had started DCAing in during the height of the bullrun back in December 2017, you would still be in profit today. Such is the point of DCA.

Yeah I completely agree with that, as I said with the rest of my post. I was just trying to rationalize why OP put it in his list by pointing out that there is a school of thought out there which doesn't believe that DCA is a fundamentally sound strategy.

As far as profits go, none of the articles I have linked said that you won't profit from DCA, just that on average, DCA yielded poorer results among other methods tested. ~~No such in-depth study (like this one) has been done on the crypto market~~, so I thought ones done on the stock market would be somewhat relevant to the discussion, given that there are a lot of people who apply the same principles and strategies to both.

Edit: nvm, I found one:

Quote from: https://shitcoin.ninja/post/2019/10/comparing-bitcoin-investment-strategies/

Conclusion
We created a simple trial comparing lump sum to the strategy of investing in the same amount monthly over a year, and found that lump sum still won ~67.9% of the time. Even the arbitrarily reduced dataset showed that Lump Sum beats DCA 60.8% of time.

I still wouldn't discourage people from doing DCA though, considering it's still a much safer way to invest your money (in BTC at least).