Quote from: nathias on March 17, 2014, 11:48:45 AM

Quote from: gollum on March 10, 2014, 02:48:38 PM

Quote from: nathias on March 02, 2014, 03:31:07 PM

Quote from: gollum on February 25, 2014, 06:59:35 PM

I believe technical analysis is a much simpler and accurate way of predicting the future price of any asset, including bitcoin.

Your method of analysing the growth rate of new bitcoin addresses is only useful during the first years of a new coin, but at this stage many other parameters fundamentally affect the price.

Here is my prediction of the current crash, the downtrend starting from 1200 to 800 showed that bitcoin wanted to go down and did not have any strong support line before $100

So thats the technical analysis? "bitcoin wanted to go down" and a graph with a downpointing arrow?

You don't even know what the greater fool theory is, or else you'd know why it isn't applicable to bitcoin.

Greater fools bougth bitcoin at 1000+ and have lost half of their dollar value.
But who knows maybe they can get 10,000$ in the future?

Greater fools theory applies only to things without value, I doub't that the networks of bitcoin (ASIC farms, vendors, exchanges etc.) are valueless, like some of the crap altcoins.

Greater fool theory applies to anything that is sold for a much higher price than it's fair valuation, even if it has intrinsic value.

Example:
You buy real estate for $100,000 and rent it out for $5,000, dividend =5 %/year which is fair.
Next year you sell it for $200,000 and the rent still is $5,000, dividend = 2.5% now.
The new investor must now believe there is "a greater fool" that are willing to accept even a lower dividend the day he wants to sell it.