Quote from: nstrdms on January 27, 2020, 08:03:28 AM

Quote from: DanB1 on January 27, 2020, 07:58:54 AM

So far, Socrates has been spot on which I find remarkable if this continues.
According to MA, a lower closing this week will mean that we go down further in February.

That's an incredibly remarkable forecast. Absolutely amazing. Hopefully it continues so you can keep finding it remarkable. /s

Spot on nstrdms! Thank you. You are highlighting a fallacy, and I have been watching this for some time. That flip-flop type of evaluation (I would not call it analysis by any stretch of the imagination) with disregard of continuity, consistency, credibility. At best, this would be recency bias. Is he still trying to find some gold nuggets in a pile of garbage?

And most importantly, Socrates has NOT and would not have forecast this, because Socrates has elected bullish reversals on the high which are now turning into bad losses. Statistically it is all noise and no consistent gains are possible.

What MA is doing is to scatter forecasts like a shotgun. Then in hindsight he creates a sales campaign around the one out of many that succeeded while ignoring the failed ones.

Subsequently he literally forces his readers to make the leap of faith that this must be attributed to Socrates, with the aim of meeting his sales objectives. DanB1 just highlights this trap - indeed a prime example.

That is why I do not focus so much on these forecasts whether they fail or not. I focus on the methods that MA applies to sell snake oil by fooling everyone (except a few) all the time. The discussion whether there was a forecast of this event - whether it turns out to be correct or not - is futile. I do not want to become a forecaster, if so then I would not be better than MA.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud.

See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog