Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
Trolls said bitcoin was in a bear market since Jan 2018 and the pump from 3 100 to 13 880 was fake thanks to chinese ponzi Plus Token. I say bitcoin has always been in bull market. 2018 and late 2019 "crashes" were just exhausted bulls taking a rest before the next charge. If we have another 6 months extensive bull run like in the first half of 2019, we may go up to 30 000 around the halving (4.5x from the local bottom 6 400). If we have some corrections on the way (which is more probable), then we might be around 18 000. Worst case scenario is to go around 11K at the halving. After that it should be a matter of several months to break the ATH. Anyway, the dreams of cheap coins below 6 000 are dying for good! The bear kids were spoiled by the many stops of the train in 2018 and 2019. Now they have to jump in motion if they don't want to be left out. I am all in although I didn't take that big loan which I wrote about in my previous posts. I found it is comforting to invest all fiat savings and have a non mortgage loan possibility as a backup in case some colossal crash happens.
Come on...
it was bear for around 2 years since beginning of 2018. Now there are good signs of a recover back to old times but we can not still say something easily.
I would ONLY caveat that in 2018, we likely did not really realize that we were in a bear market until close to the end of 2018 - even though premature bear callers had been proclaiming bear market bear market.. blah blah blah.. but we really did not know until the end of 2018... furthermore, I would suggest that we left that bear market in about May 2019.. .or at least that seems to be the tentative framework to consider the matter.
Of course, if we were to go back down to $5,200-ish or lower in the coming 6-9 months, our description of bear market or bull market or attempting to describe overall bitcoin BTC price dynamics might need to be adjusted based on such subsequent BTC price movement dynamics.
By the way, if the presumption of the solidness of the $6,424 bottom ends up playing out as true, then it only gives greater evidence that we had confirmed to come out of that 2018-ish bear market in about May 2019 but yeah, I agree with your overall thesis, Mihaylovic, that we cannot really paint the whole damned bitcoin market as a bull market, even if technically it has played out to be true that bitcoin mostly goes up in the long term, there still remains some benefits to at least attempting to recognize the various hype cycles that bitcoin has experienced within that overall period.. whether they can be fairly characterized as four year cycles or if some better assessment might be appropriate in order to attempt to figure out where we are likely to go from here.. that also lines up with attempting to accurately characterize where we have been.