Quote from: MatTheCat on February 26, 2014, 12:36:06 PM

Quote from: TERA on February 26, 2014, 12:14:52 PM

What? That rise took 8 days. This took less than one day.

Pardon me if I haven't been paying attention, but what is your take on the market from here?

I have buy-ins in low $500s and I am short since just recently $575 (after suffering a little bit of slippage transferring BTC around). What sort of a retraction would you personally be looking at here? Would you consider the possibility that the 'recovery' has occurred so sharply, that it may actually represent a dramatic counter trend reaction. Afterall, it could be argued that we have fallen short of the last crest at $640, and looking at the longer term chart and forgetting the astronomical nominal values involved, it could be argued we are staying right on track for lower lows:

I am not saying that I necessarily subscribe to this viewpoint at this point in time, but this recovery has been insane and very much in keeping with the sharp price spikes consistent with bear market counter trend rallies. Also, there is far too much relief and euphoria around here........perhaps that this psychology exists cos it isn't really yet the bottom?

Here's the evidence I have so far that 400 was (probably) bottom:
1. The VOLUME: Bitstamp did 118K BTC of volume in a day. This type of volume hasn't been seen since the bottom in December. Huobi also did a record volume of >300K but Huobi might be irrelevant.
2. The trends support this being possible bottom: including the horizontal support at 380 and the long term logarithmic support somewhere between 300 and 500 (each of us have a different opinion about where this trend is).
3. The order book: The bitstamp order book now looks like a monster of giant continuous bidwalls against a tiny ask. Everything is consistent and there are no more 'cliffs' for the price to fall off of. The amount of fiat on there increased from 8M to 22M (an ATH) overnight.
4. The hammer candle on the daily chart.
5. The recovery right back above the 530 low that took two weeks to break.
6. The amount of overextended short interest that was on bitfinex.
7. The weekly chart pattern consistency with all previous bitcoin rallies (except 2011 bubble)