Quote from: onemd on February 20, 2020, 01:23:15 PM

Let me start here...

I followed this when it was at around 2000 or so; early in the chart, and watched on, as it went up exponentially overtime. Most everyone was in the wrong, and was ignorant about the numbers. I knew this, but just watched and cringed as the social media, and news reports portrayal of it.

You have resolved cases, new cases, and deaths. You can't just say Cases/Deaths = Morality rate.

Lets draw out a hypothetical situation:

Bob has a virus, and has the magic ability to infect 50,000 people in one day. Cases now stand at 50,000 and Death:0. Because death is 0, that doesn't mean mortality is 0. Let's assume; all of these 50,000 people are inside a dome and separate ecosystem. Where cases remain at 50,000 without ever new infections and let us also presume that they can not re-infect each other. Assuming it takes 4 weeks to overcome the virus. There are now 500 deaths at the end of the 4 weeks. Which puts the mortality rate throughout 50,000 recovered cases at 1 per cent. Reasonable to say, "And it has a mortality rate of 1 percent!"

But it's far from being the case. When it was Feb 1 - 14,533 cases at 300 deaths. And the press, media, and a lot of people were saying oh it is "300/14533" its 2% or less mortality rate! And I just cringe, it's as if people look at the information as a whole, and skim the top. Without any depth or analyzation of it.

And this extends to a lot of people, from the presidents, to social media, and so on. Lets take a look at the Canadian president Trudeau for example. "There's a level of admiration I actually have for China because their basic dictatorship is allowing them to actually do things"

And I again just cringed Angry

Hold a propaganda banquet during the spread of the virus, have some belt and road salad, *cough, cough*

Information:

Cornoavirus: the cost of China's public health cover-up. A crackdown on information about the virus in Wuhan allowed the disease to spread far more widely. Financial times, western press banned in china.

February 6, 2020 4:14 pm by James Kynge in Hong Kong, Sun Yu in Beijing and Tom Hancock in Wuhan
On January 18, roughly six weeks after Chinas deadly coronavirus started to spread in Wuhan, the citys Baibuting district was preparing for its annual mass banquet. On the 20th anniversary of the event, the organisers would be attempting to break a world record for the largest number of dishes served

Long tables in 10 locations were laid out with a total of 13,986 dishes, some bearing patriotic names such as Motherland in My Heart (cucumber and ham), and One Belt One Road (vegetable salad). The platters were prepared by members of some 40,000 families, according to media reports, with many of them showing up to eat the food and smile for the cameras.

Despite those happy scenes, the Baibuting banquets now stand as a symbol of Chinas mishandling of a viral outbreak that has killed 565 and infected more than 28,000, and spread to at least 27 countries and territories.

The district is now facing a rising toll of infected citizens. Notices saying fever block in red and black letters were pasted this week on 57 communal stairwells in the district, according to local reports and photographs seen by the Financial Times.

I feel very lucky I didnt take part in the banquet, as I have two young kids and thought it was inconvenient to bring them along, says Sally Zhang, a Baibuting resident. There are now more than 10 infections among my neighbours.

The epidemic ranks as the biggest crisis to have hit Xi Jinping, Chinas Communist party leader, since he took power in 2012. Not only has the outbreak brought large swaths of the worlds second-largest economy to a grinding halt, it also undermines the partys aura of competence.

Piecing together the events in Wuhan shows that for at least three weeks before the banquet, city authorities had been informed about the virus spreading in their midst but issued orders to suppress the news. In effect, they engineered a cover-up that played down the seriousness of the outbreak, according to officials and medical professionals.

If they have responded correctly, the world could have been spared the wuhan virus

So Trudeau, How can you have an admiration for their dictatorship if it's what spread the virus in the first place, moron Angry

Further analyzation below into Why (Cases/Deaths = Morality rate) is incorrect, seriously the press needs to stop going by this.

Assume D = Deaths, C = Cased, t = time, and L = lag between diagnosis and death.

The media is reporting Death/cases as D(t)/C(t) for morality rate.

It's more like this: D(t)/C(t-L).
Death(time)/Case(Time-(lag between diagnosis and death))

Again if 10,000 were inside a dome, and there was 100 deaths, after 4 days. *Press: It's 1% Everyone!!!*, continuing, 10 days later. There is now 500 Deaths. The morality rate is not 1% moron press! Its 5%!

Feb 4th: 24545 Cases at 899 Recovered Cases, at 492 Deaths. Morality rate is not 492/24545 = 0.02*100=2% Angry

If this whole sample size was inside a dome, where cases can't increase. You need to wait out the other 24K+ cases to determine the true morality rate. Of being 24K+ recovered/finished cases to deaths = Morality rate. To say 2% is just plain wrong. If you state it based on the recovered cases/deaths it be a lot higher.

So again I cringed Angry

Looking at all recovered cases outside of china
https://i.imgur.com/Od53y28.png

We still need to wait out more cases outside of china to see how they resolve for more data point in regards to not in china. But adding the recovered cases, 210 to 11 deaths. That means for 210 recovered cases, there are 11 deaths currently, at 47 In Critical condition!

This places the morality rate in the vancity of 5 percent. Furthermore the likelihood that you are in critical condition, so you know that long-term organ damage and shit are possible. A whooping 15 Percent!!! Can we please stop spreading this to the outside world?

And the procedures are a joke, I have basically lost faith in humanity. Example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?reload=9&v=QUCsnX2Drtc
And they are let outside to see children play, and in regards to the video, quote: "Why aren't these people wearing gloves when touching coffee dispensers and other shared products? Too much focus on masks. And incubation period is 24 days so these people can test positive after they leave the facility. If they spread it, it will hit the news waves in a couple of weeks."

There are information on cases where the virus doesn't show for 14 days, and then test postive, and/or incubation period being past 14 days. But nope, ignore all the findings, and just release them into the public. While your at it, put them outside and have them infect all the children Angry

Japan? https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/18/asia/japan-health-guidelines-coronavirus-hnk-intl/index.html

"Not bothering to quarantine citizens coming off ship, just sending them out into the general population" And Again I cringed Angry

Enjoy the pandemic fireworks everyone in a few weeks to months time. 5>30>500>3000 in japan, 5>30>500>3000 in USA, and so on.

And this is why I lost faith in humanity Angry

The diseases which spread with the high speed it has a less dead ratio and if you research then you can get to know that all people died in the corona are weak in body resistance and the person with good resistance power get recovered. But the one thing we can pray to God to save us.