Quote from: TERA on February 27, 2014, 01:11:04 AM

Thoughts?

Very interesting observation indeed. I really need to get reading through my TA 101 text book more so that I can noticed these things for myself.

The conclusion that I would come to right away is that is not behaving so much like a natural bear market bottom, but yet another spike down on a long running bear trend. We are currently all out of steam, at a yet lower maxed out price range than the previous one, which was high $600s, lower $700s. We are now high $500s, with a possible sneak up to lower $600 ranges. Perhaps all us amateur Tech Analysts setting out our recovery retracement buy-ins for a text book 66% correction, are going to get our asses kicked when we wake up one day to see all our low $500 and high $400 buy ins triggered, with Bitcoin bouncing around in a panic like craze in the $300 range. I will be honest, at this point in time, I really don't feel that this is on the cards but on the otherhand. For first time in a long time, I am beginning to feel positive on Bitcoin (pending correction notwithstanding) but this bottom has worked out a little bit too much by the book on the face of things.

Perhaps what the indicators belie, is the fact that this has been an artificially forced bottom, as opposed to a more organic market bottom, with the logical conclusion being that there is still more to come?

This is merely a theory and not something I firmly believe in. I will state this as I have had a track record recently of my irrational but firm beliefs about Bitcoin actually coming to fruition (give or take the odd $8.66). I trust I will know soon enough which way the wind is going to end up blowing.

Edit: Same thing can be said with the 1D MACD. On all previous trend reversals, MACD was trending down and infact deeply depressed. On this occasion, MACD was actually trending up prior to 2-3 days of mass sell off and recovery. Conclusion. This could well have been a mere flash crash. Not a trend reversal. Well spotted! If this turns out to be the case, so many people are going to totally fkn burned. Everyone is totally convinced that that was the bottom....even me!