Perhaps a good game would be for everyone to choose 2 prices with a 99% probability of containing the range for the next week, month, 3 months, year. It would help focus minds on reality, and probability.
I like that idea. Prince ranges with a self-described 99% confidence that the price will land somewhere between those 2 values.
I'll go first.
In 1 week (3/23):
$3,500 - $6,000In 1 month (4/16): $4,000 - $7,500
In 3 months (6/16): $4,500 - $8,000
In 1 year: (3/16/21): $8,000 - $30,000
Whoever gets the 1 week correct (price at noon UCT 3/23) with the lowest margin between the lo and hi wins 4 merits from me.*
*to be eligible for my merits, you have to have made a guess before I fall asleep tonight (in about 9-10 hours from now).
In 1 week (3/23):
$5,500 - $5,750In 1 month (4/16): $6,500 - $6,750
In 3 months (6/16): $8,500 - $8,750
In 1 year: (3/16/21): $20,000 - $25,000
O.k. what the fuck. I will do it.
It's a reasonable mental exercise, and fuck you guys... I am going to estimate with something in the 99% thinking arena, not some pie in the sky 70% numbers or some other gambling numbers that I have already seen in the so far two above attached submissions.
In 1 week (3/23): $2,100 - $10,970
In 1 month (4/16): $1,500 - $12,970
In 3 months (6/16): $2,500 - $17,250
In 1 year: (3/16/21): $4,600 - $150,000