Quote from: fillippone on March 17, 2020, 04:00:25 PM

Quote from: suchmoon on March 17, 2020, 03:48:35 PM

Quote from: nullius on March 17, 2020, 03:33:23 PM

Lockdowns dont help with thatand probably wont help the old folks in the end.

Lockdowns, if implemented early enough and supported by other measures, can help to slow down the spread, which may be the difference between life and death for a lot of people. If you insist on killing yourself that's your business but you probably shouldn't be making that decision for anyone else.

Italy we have a open sky laboratory on lockdowns.

We had two zones in northern Italy where the disease initially spread.

The first was the one that actually has been quickly locked down almost one month ago. it was a few small village in a rural area. They sent the army patrolling it (quasi-Chinese approach). The people were smart enough to understand the risk and followed the rules closely (being a rural environment helped a lot imho. The disease has almost disappeared, today, no new infections in the last few days.

The other one was inexplicably missed out. A few cases not correctly diagnosed, as there they followed the "general Italian rule of lockdowns". The disease was in the wild for a few weeks with people going on with their businesses as usual. Result is the hospital in that zone (near the mountains) are now close to collapse. I saw a video on WhatsApp (anedoctical evidence I know, with 4x obituaries than usual, none of them diagnosed).

Also Milan, the main city close to the epicenter of the disease, with the best hospital in the country, is ready for the "battle of Milan" facing unprecedented pressure on the health system. Again, anedotical evidence, of many people with symptoms not tested nor accepted in the hospitals because of the critical situation.

I found this graph details the new cases on those provinces.
The the green one is the first put in lockdown, while the yellow is the one I was referring to into my previous message: the difference is clear, and also clear how important is to respect the rules.
(the blue line is Milan, the main northern city).