Quote from: OutOfMemory on March 17, 2020, 10:56:29 PM

Quote from: Lambie Slayer on March 17, 2020, 10:37:22 PM

Its already peaked in Asia, it will soon peak in the West. We are in the late stages, not the early stages.

Asia? You mean China.
And mainly because of the strict stop. See their industry boot up again, while yours will be tanking. Correct, I have no arguments against that.

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Covbull-19 only gains serious traction in specific climate circumstances.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3550308

"Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, has established significant community spread in cities and regions along a narrow east west distribution roughly along the 30-50o N corridor at consistently similar weather patterns consisting of average temperatures of 5-11oC, combined with low specific (3-6 g/kg) and absolute humidity (4-7 g/m3). There has been a lack of significant community establishment in expected locations that are based only on population proximity and extensive population interaction through travel."

Along the main routes of traffic. The environment numbers are maybe only a result of the seasonal changes. One of the main spreading factors seems to be indoor location, with preferably many persons, close together, in a high frequency.
Airports, shopping malls, concerts, clubs, subway, bars, ronald mc. arkward and so on. A reproduction value of R=1.4 is enough to let this thing explode. Excellent data you bring up. I have nothing to controvert it so I resort to obfuscating with "seems to be" and "maybe" statements.

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New York and Washington state will likely be the last major hot spots to peak. Then its all downhill. Of course the fear mongers wont come back and apologize, they never do.

Ill be focusing my efforts on anyone trying to kick Hodlers while they are down by spreading doom and gloom.

Also Ill be focusing on anyone advocating to lock society down and killing millions with a global depression when we could more safely lock down the old and sick while the rest of society flourishes.

You forgot, that on the peak of this pandemic, many people will likely be sick AT ONCE, more or less serious, and can't go to work for a certain time. It's exponential, baby. That's why you gotta slow it down, preferably with the least damage (generally speaking). You seem to assume only the sick and old are the problem, but reality never is that simple. There are a lot of other factors.
Speaking of simple: Simple, wide ranging solutions in complex environments are most likely failing to achieve something specifically wanted. On the downside, they tend to create new problems, sometimes many. I cant deny locking down old and sick only would save millions by avoiding a severe global depression. But I need to justify my fears to massage my ego. It would be a blow to my ego to think I was unduly concerned about doom porn. So Ill just discuss how complicated things are and throw a few truisms in to fluff up the word count.

The mind of a bear is quite interesting. Cheesy