Quote from: philipma1957 on March 19, 2020, 08:57:28 PM

He is suggesting the amount of inactive accounts will go up 2 or 3 or 5 fold.

Indeed I am - thank you for noticing.

A couple of people have focused on DT1, this isn't about them - my example went down the pecking order DT1, then DT2 then non DT ranked members. I could have easily (If I had a breakdown of the numbers) looked at Legendary, Hero ... down the line. I also mentioned that although statistically it could be x of this rank, y of that rank and so on none of this can be said for certain and could be x^2.3 of this rank and y^0.9 of that rank.

Quote from: iasenko on March 19, 2020, 02:52:47 PM

I can't filter who might have disappeared from the forum because of the virus but you can get some hints by just check regularly Top 1000 merit receivers who were not active the past 30 days. Then you know who is "gone" for a while.

This is a perfect example of what I am looking for in this thread - evidence that a user stopped posting at this particular time, not after the storm has passed and they then don't come back (if at all) for a very long time.

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Then I should start updating this list more often.
We have a really bad flu here in Norway (not the corona one) and many people die from this one too, you can't focus only on covid-19, accidents happen every day.
Stay safe people

If there was an epidemic of people suddenly dieing from car crashes, or ten, a hundred fold deaths from cigarettes, then I might have chosen to look at that. But the reality is there is a sudden spike in deaths in our global village which can be attributed to the COVID-19 virus and its spread amongst the entire population.

Quote from: DdmrDdmr on March 19, 2020, 04:15:12 PM

Ok, so Ive been in contact with a confirmed COVID-19 positive over the past 10 days, but have not developed any symptoms (this is true, and fortunately the person is recovering fine). Should I not post in the coming days, either the synthons have made their appearance, or Ive got an overwhelming amount of work to do, even on lockdown (although in the latter scenario I could always pop a post or two every now and then).

I hope you and your acquaintance are making a speedy recovery. Please keep us updated if you can.

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By the way, theres still a lot of fuzz around how the death rate is being calculated in different countries, and how its evolution is not necessarily due to clinical reasons, but rather statistical ones. For example, Germany seems to consider amongst the deceased only those where the Coronavirus was the primal cause of death. Other countries are considering those that, having died for any reason, had the Coronavirus.

The seven links I posted in the OP are all I could find on statistical data of actual transmission and fatalities, the wikipedia entry is at pains to point out the inaccuracies due to a lack of clear information as is the W.H.O. site with more focus on washing your hands and safe social distancing practices.

If anyone has hard statistical data links they can share, I will gladly amend the OP to reflect the known facts.

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Additionally, the more tests that are extended over to mild symptomatic cases, the less the death rate ratio. Spain is currently focused on testing those with clear symptoms, but not so much on those with mild symptoms, thus the death rate is higher, and will decrease as the test is extended on to the milder cases at some point.

Quote from: The Pharmacist on March 19, 2020, 01:19:46 PM

Quote from: o_e_l_e_o on March 19, 2020, 12:05:52 PM

I don't think this pandemic will result in a significant change in the number being hacked or reactivated.

Nor do I. I also tend to think bitcointalk members are younger than average and would probably have a lower mortality rate than the general population--but I have no data to support this, just my impressions based on experience.

Being more socially aware can be a good thing when self isolating and the evidence suggest the older you are, the more likely this virus will claim your life.

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I don't know how many members have died since I registered, either. There have been a couple that the community was made aware of (like Zepher), but unless a member has on-forum friends that they know personally and someone notifies the community of a death, there's really no way to tell who's died. And the only reason I'm writing this is because 600+ deaths of forum members is weird to ponder.

Incagold was a person in my workplace who had been investing heavily in bitcoin (gold and silver bullion) for his self managed superannuation fund. I introduced him to BCT but he only logged in a couple of times before he was involved in an accident and died. Because he never posted, his profile just looks line any other UID that registered, logged-in a couple of times then got archived.

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And yeah, OP. More border closings are probably going to happen, and I'm a little surprised countries haven't made that move sooner.

Europe closing it's borders then the member states doing likewise is a significant move.

As always all good points, I'll just focucs on this point:

Quote from: actmyname on March 19, 2020, 08:05:00 PM

This kind of meta-analysis should be sought after in order to ascertain the definitive death rate.

My intention with this thread is to alert people here that there will be some users who may just stop posting during this time, some we know well, others we may never have read even a single word of.

Quote from: 20kevin20 on March 19, 2020, 12:51:07 PM

We shoudn't consider a Legendary (or a DT1/DT2) user to be dead from the COVID-19 if they fall silent.

All good points in your post, I hadn't intended to focus on DT1, if you have that impression, then I'm sorry you thought that. DT1 accounts are more valuable for resale once hacked - kenzawak is an example of a multiple hacked account.

Quote from: Welsh on March 19, 2020, 01:08:45 PM

There's a lot of users that keep a eye on "high" level profiles on this forum. When I returned to the forum from a period of activity I had several users contact me to provide a signed message from addresses that I had previously posted on the forum. Dating all the way back to 2015.

This is excellent news, it just needs to be tempered with the known fact that if a user awakens in a few years time who fell silent now, the user may well have died and the account has been compromised.

If a hacker suspects a particular account became inactive at this time, then they could put more effort into hacking that account unnoticed.

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As for the estimation of the deaths, that would be assuming that the spread of age on the forum is the same as the statistics in other countries. The statistics are chance of death will widely vary due to the fact that Bitcoin, the internet, and cryptocurrencies in general apply to a certain individual, and I would estimate that the younger generation is far more likely to be interested than those that are in their seventies plus. That also brings up the fact that there's likely a lot of programmers, and other users which can work from home, and significantly reduce the chance of getting infected. Unfortunately, due to the varying circumstances you cannot apply the same statistics of the current virus to the forum users.

From the scarce hard data I found, the younger you are, the less likely you are to contract let alone die from COVID-19 so the game bois can safely keep playing minecraft in their mom's bedrooms.

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I would estimate that the majority of accounts that can be hacked, have already been hacked due to the database compromises in 2015. Most active users would have likely changed their credentials or their credentials were already good enough to withstand the attacks that a malicious user could've performed on the hashed data.

How does the saying go, the price of freedom is eternal vigilance...