Quote from: Xu on February 27, 2014, 04:04:13 PM

Quote from: gog1 on February 27, 2014, 03:58:10 PM

Quote from: Xu on February 27, 2014, 03:51:23 PM

4 blocks mined in less than 24 hours. Last week we found 3 blocks all week. The odds that this is just "good luck" is about 3.4%. Put another way, there is roughly a 96% chance that AM's hashrate just got a fairly dramatic increase. FC got sample chips, and got them hashing already, and their performance boosted AM's hash rate that much?

It's all just speculation at this point, but signs are looking really good...you can almost feel a coming FC announcement in the air.

How did you get 3.4%? My math show that the odds of good luck is a lot lower given you average 3 blocks a week but found 4 in a day.

It was really a sort of back of the envelop calculation, but here is how I got it. If we found 3 blocks in 7 days, there is a 3/7 chance of finding 1 block per day. 4 in a day would be (3/7)^4 which is about 3.4%.

Assuming my math is right, that means about a 1 in 30 chance of 4 blocks on any given day, so this sort of thing should happen about once a month, so it might not be anything other than just random luck.