Quote from: porcupine87 on February 27, 2014, 08:23:22 PM

Quote from: TERA on February 27, 2014, 01:11:04 AM

Analyze the TA in the follow charts of bear market recoveries, particularly the Stochastic RSI, the depth of the trading range, and the amount of time spent consolidating before breakout. These are all logarithmic charts to help emphasize and compare the depth of trading ranges.
The current recovery is completely unlike any other btc recovery in history.

1. The stochastic RSI was never down and is on the moon instead, appearing to give a SELL signal rather than a buy signal. In every other recovery, stochastic RSI is very low and then works its way upwards into the breakout.
2. It has a 55% trading range when every other recovery has a 20% trading range.
3. There is this hammer candle with a complete abandonment of the previous lows in 400-550. Every other recovery has gone down to retest the lows.
4. It has spent 2 days trading before breakout when every other recovery has spent at least a week.

Thoughts?

Quote from: oda.krell on February 27, 2014, 07:25:59 PM

Quote from: porcupine87 on February 27, 2014, 05:53:08 PM

TA is not everything. High RSI suggest to sell and low RSI suggest to buy. So let's see:

You're a regular comedian, aren't you. The only thing you proved by your post is that you know little to nothing about TA.*

*because I'm afraid you'll ask: because that's not how identifying overbought/oversold conditions, or in general, TA, works. You don't look at a single indicator and say "Now I'll buy". So your chart is completely meaningless, like posting a weather forecast of today saying "chance of rain 60%", and then gloating "but it actually *didn't* rain". It is based (a) on a naive idea of how technical analysis works, and (b) on the equally wrong assumption that for TA to be profitable on average it needs to be "infallible", which is not how any probabilistic models works.

I am not the biggest fan of TA, but I start to like it. If you look closely, you see, that the signal "high RSI -> sell" was right a few times. But the assumption made by TERA is - as far as I understand him - that the RSI is now high so the price should go down.
In my opinion there is maybe a higher probability because of that indicator , but it could also go up.

News don't care about the previous prices, but influence the price!

I think OP's point was even "weaker" than that... (please correct me TERA) ... his point was that *reversal* situations previously looked very different than the situation now, so caution is advised. I'm pretty sure he didn't mean to say "StochRSI is too high, sell it all now" :D