Quote from: exstasie on April 02, 2020, 12:01:47 AM

A retest of $7K looks within reach now. Break $7K with authority and then low $8,000s are on the table. That's where I would cap my expectations. I would be amazed if the 200-day MA doesn't smack the market down into another weekly downtrend.

Not exactly the look I was hoping for. We didn't break above $7K with authority:

However, unlike the similar long-shadowed candle on March 15th, the market didn't sell off following the full retrace. I would say we can remain cautiously bullish as long as the market holds above that $6,650 pivot. Below there, it begins to look like a failure. Breaking back down into that triangle range would look pretty bearish.

There is a cluster of daily pivots between $7,600 and $8,200 with the 50-day and 200-day MAs inside the range. That seems like a reasonable stopping point for any continued rally.

I'm noticing a pronounced change in sentiment from bearish to bullish among traders I follow. I am seeing several calls for the $9,000s now. Perpetual swap interest is still negative (short term traders are still net short) but futures spreads are turning positive. The market is not "greedy" yet but we are starting to get there. Be careful getting too bullish this late into the rally. After an 89% run during a larger downtrend, profit taking should be on the mind.