Do you realize the market just rallied 94%? And that the halving is one month away? This is the halving pump, just like the one that occurred in May-June 2016 right before the July 2016 halving. During that rally, price just about doubled, but shortly before the actual halving the market crashed 40%.
Be prepared for that. Logically the halving should be a "buy the rumor, sell the news" event since it's public knowledge. I would expect sellers to front run the event (like 2016) for the same reason.
I don't think we'll be seeing the March lows again, but depending where this rally tops, a 30-40% drop wouldn't be out of the ordinary.
It was a 30% drop after the 2nd halving right?
I agree if we were to rally past the "fair value" of $11,400 the halving prior we could see a pullback. Also throughout the bull market phase expect MULTIPLE 30% pullbacks as during the last market cycle.
It was a 40% drop in 2016. Arguably the August Bitfinex hack news intensified the downward pressure and we crashed harder than we would have otherwise.
Why do you think $11,400 is fair value? My opinion is fair value = the current spot price.
Personally, I don't view it as Bitcoin just rallied 100% off of the low (which is of course has) but nothing more than a vicious liquidation loop on Bitmex which self corrected within hours after Bitmex went offline. Price is basically back to where it was before the liquidity crisis.
I don't think Bitmex caused the liquidity event at all.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5235794.msg54171345#msg54171345I agree that part of this month-long rally was merely a reaction to that liquidity event. However I don't think that automatically means we get
another 100% halving pump (like 2016) either. It's still a "sell the news" event that sellers will probably front run by a matter of weeks, and BTC holders are still sitting on massive losses from $10.5K, suggesting lots of upside resistance.