Quote from: Tegija on February 28, 2014, 09:15:39 AM

Quote from: Mota on February 28, 2014, 08:31:47 AM

Quote from: Tegija on February 28, 2014, 06:25:34 AM

Quote from: surfer43 on February 28, 2014, 06:15:17 AM

Quote from: palm12341 on February 25, 2014, 11:35:08 PM

Buying 1.0 GOXBTC for BTC0.01
Will send today to reputable member and trust them to pay me if/when site returns

no offense... the odds are much better than that

i do not know why you are thinking so or from where your informations are coming...

i tried to analyze all informations to find out how high the odds are and came to conclusion that its not much higher than 2-3%.
You are right, its much better than 1goxBTC-->0.01BTC, but that what is going on in bitcoinbuilder is for sure loss-business for buyer.

pray tell, how exactly do you measure odds for something you don't have all the facts? Roll Eyes

speculating does not need facts, mostly rumors are enough. odds are anyway everybody's personal issue and for sure i´m not able to calculate your odds. so as always most important is to have:
possibly many facts (practically no real facts in case of gox);
hear/collect all rumors (lots of them out there);
have a bunch of intuition (very personal sensible skill);
Sort all this with bit of analysis skills (without that better don´t speculate);
set your own high/low limits (thats how you can measure your odds);

playing poker, you do not know your opposites cards (facts) neither, but if you are skipping calculating odds (winning chances) then better do not play poker...

if we would have ALL facts, we would not need to calculate odds. Grin

you can't calculate odds without a certain factor to hold on to. In poker you have a limited choice of cards (52), your own cards and later on the community card board. So in fact you calculate your odds against facts, namely the highest possible combination for you against the highest possible combination for your opponents. If you have a chance of 50% to win and you can win 2 times your stack you will play that hand.

What is your limited choice here? Gox dead to gox alive. Those odds would be 50% without more info.
Given the fact that we KNOW the cold wallets are still full and untouched, but we don't know if they can access them in the near future (again, 50%):
Chance for them to be alive and able to pay out: ? There are wayyy too many inputs there. you can't possibly even try to measure the odds.