Quote from: perfect999 on April 16, 2020, 07:56:15 PM

Quote from: Betwrong on April 16, 2020, 08:10:28 AM

Quote from: s0lidus on April 15, 2020, 07:56:26 AM

Quote from: Betwrong on April 15, 2020, 06:46:25 AM

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Because he was placing flat bets.

Well, if that was the case, then he did win 23 times in a row with 33.066% win chance. Or, otherwise we would see some lost bets in the pictures above, right? You see, that's why I've been writing about it so much: 23 wins in a row with 33.066% win chance seems highly unlikely.

Even if you think it is highly unlikely, just like we always tell to people who lose 10+ times in a row on martingale, each bet is individual to itself and independent from the others, which means the 23th bet he made, after 22 times hitting the correct one, is actually still 1/3 chance to win, it doesn't suddenly becomes even more impossible to hit it just because you managed to hit many corrects in a row. Normally we talk about this on losses and not wins, talking about it on wins does make it a bit interesting because we rarely ever see them come out like this, however as you can see if there are people who complain about losing too many times in a row, there is always a person who hits that many in a row as well, hell I don't remember last time I saw 23 times in a row lose on a 67% odd for example.

It really depends on when you make your prediction.

If somebody needs to win a 1/3 bet 10 times in a row, and you make your estimation before they start, then the odds of succeeding are 0.333^10 = approx 0.0000167%, or almost 1 in 60,000.

However, if they have already won 22 times in a row, then the odds of winning a 23rd time is 1/3, a 24th time is 1/9, a 25th time is 1/27 etc (when predicting before any bets are made).