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"four years from now the economy will most likely recover to the same level of activity that it was in January" adding that "to think that the economy is going to reaccelerate in the third quarter in a V-shaped recovery to the level where gross domestic product (GDP) was prior to the pandemic is unrealistic."

Strongly agree on this point. Back in mid-March I was in the "V-shaped recovery" camp, pushing the 1987 stock market crash as a parallel and saying this crisis would be one month and then done.

That worked out well for trading the current stock market relief rally, but the underlying economic situation looks exponentially worse now. It's becoming obvious that "reopening" doesn't mean returning to pre-pandemic production or employment levels, and that the pandemic itself will likely last years.

Across the globe, there are no economic numbers suggesting a V-shaped recovery. It has almost become a pipe dream.

Quote from: jackg on Today at 10:29:20 PM

I don't think the US was every a free market capitalist country... It's probably hard to swallow for a lot of people from the US but the government often interferes with monetary policy and other areas it wouldn't if it were fully free market capitalist such as regulations from the fda.

Yep, the US is clearly a mixed economy, free markets with state intervention. QE was just yet another policy in a very long history of state interventions.

Quote from: The Pharmacist on Today at 10:38:27 PM

It's a Zerohedge article, bro. What kind of insubstantial end-of-the-world nonsense do you expect from that site?

And since it's from ZH, I'm not clicking on the link or reading it.

The trick is to look at ZH's sources. It's not Tyler Durden who made these comments, it was a prominent investment executive at a firm with 270 billion USD under management. I suggest reading the actual letter: https://www.guggenheiminvestments.com/perspectives/global-cio-outlook/prepare-for-the-era-of-recrimination