Quote from: Majormax on Today at 11:47:32 AM

Quote from: exstasie on Today at 08:54:43 AM

Thanks for the update. My trend line is actually closer to $11,300 but I'm not sure it matters. What I'm primarily concerned about is the yearly pivot at $10.5K. If the market breaks that to the upside it should be meaningful.

I agree with him, this is a potentially huge inflection point. If bears maintain the yearly downtrend, then this triangle idea remains intact. Typical Wave (e) target is $5,700.

This is a tense situation. The price action looks bullish, the OBV looks bearish, the stock market is weak. We probably have a very interesting week ahead of us.

Yes, 10500 is one of the most important levels from a number of points of view (many previous post about this). I only look at simple volume/work areas, and not wave analysis.

A break of 10.5k might take a lot of work, but would be a great milestone if it happens.

On the bear side, the run-up from 3800 could accommodate a retrace to 6400, which is another busy area. ..Interesting that you have 5700 as target for completion of a downwave. I would have thought that getting as far as that was signalling a downtrend resumption.

$5,700 is just an area of interest. I wouldn't necessarily bet the farm on it.

My theory is that we already are in a multi-year sideways bear market (December 2017-present). So a resumption of the downtrend just means staying inside the contracting long term range and not breaking out yet.

I like $5,700 for multiple reasons though. One, a failure here suggests a months-long re-accumulation phase, which makes the 200-week MA (currently $5,800) very attractive as a target. As we saw in March, BTC loves to make its bearish extremes early, then form higher lows. So speculating on a very short-lived wick below the 200-week MA may not be a bad bet. If we get there, it's a strong buy.

Second, a failure here gives support to that multi-year triangle idea. The most common retracement level for a Wave (e) is 70%. So this is more of an EW guideline than something particular to BTC, but I will say it's a very common reversal level in BTC too. The 0.705 level is known under another system as the "optimal trade entry (OTE)" for good reason.

Third, in my experience, people who are currently bearish will buy the dumps too early. The market is heavily leveraged long (Bitmex longs currently paying 0.0305% on swap interest, Bitfinex longs up almost 30% in a few days). The pressure from margin longs into low bid side liquidity is often underestimated during dumps. The March crash was a reminder of that. Lots of people will be aiming at the $6,200-$7,200 zone. There's a decent chance these early bulls will get washed out. Be careful catching the knife!