Quote from: SaltySpitoon on May 18, 2020, 09:18:52 PM

Quote from: TECSHARE on May 18, 2020, 07:37:28 PM

Do you actually have any evidence that so much effort was put into planning this response, or is this just a lazy appeal to authority logical fallacy again on your part? No one has the data or ability to model the macroeconomic effects of the shutdown, that is my point. I don't care how many experts you throw at it, the economy is a very finely tuned complicated machine flying down the highway at 120mph, and the shutdown just slammed it into reverse gear at full speed. Even if we can regain control of the vehicle the transmission is going to be destroyed.

Very good of you to tell me what my point is. What else is that called? Oh, right a straw man. My point is no one has the ability to model all of this effectively, and you have no evidence to support your claim that it has been examined in this way, in such detail, or even by economics experts. My point is even if they did, they still would not be able to do a good enough job to approach a reliable model. So far all I have seen are horribly inaccurate computer model based systems, not "millions of people who understand economics". This wasn't an economic policy, it was an emergency policy with economics as an afterthought at best. You like to imagine that government couldn't be so incompetent, but you have zero evidence to support your assertions.

What if I told you the lock down plan is based on a high school science project from 2006? What would you say then? What if I told you that experts in economics and medicine rejected the idea, but it was implemented anyway? What if I asked you to substantiate your claims with documentation? What other logical fallacies would you pull out to avoid admitting that you have zero logical arguments to respond with? There are people who have interests in seeing this nation fail for control and profit. Your inability to admit this and pretend like no one wants to see this happen is beyond ignorant. What will eventually be sold as incompetence is actually intentional sabotage, and it is enabled by millions of people just like you running to the warm embrace of the government when they tell you "we are here to help!". When you see the devastation that develops over the following years as a result of this policy, you just make sure you remember how vociferously you fought for your own nation's destruction.

"The 2006 Origins of the Lockdown Idea"

https://www.aier.org/article/the-2006-origins-of-the-lockdown-idea/

"Neil Ferguson's Imperial model could be the most devastating software mistake of all time "

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2020/05/16/neil-fergusons-imperial-model-could-devastating-software-mistake/

You're approaching this from the wrong angle, people don't just decide policy based on nothing, its not logical. The economy is as you said a finely tuned and complicated machine, but it is analyzed and forecast on a daily basis. Its not some mysterious entity that the people who've been analyzing it for 30 years are unable to draw conclusions on. The Trump administration employs these wizards that have a full time job of saying, hey we should impose tariffs to incentive this sector because we predict that this earthquake in Uzbekistan will have this effect on the sector. But you're right, its far more reasonable and likely to assume they're just throwing darts at a dartboard to decide economic policy.

Not that it matters, but the lockdown idea was first applied in the 1300s where the term "quattuor" (later quarantine) comes from, to curb the spread of the bubonic plague. Its been applied for hundreds of years because it does work. Canada did lockdown measures in 2003 to stop the spread of SARS. South Korea did the same thing in 2015 with MERS. The US did social distancing and closure of businesses where patrons couldn't distance themselves in 1918. Epidemics aren't all that rare, its just that the ones that we've had in the US in the past 100 years were more or less treatable with vaccines which isn't the case this time around.

Even if I was to entertain the idea of US Government incompetence and decided that you knew better how to manage the economy than the consensus of all of the people they employ, what about Canada? What about every other country in the world doing the same measures (albeit substantially more successfully than us). They all have different governments with different interests, yet their medical and economic advisors are more or less telling them the same things.

I'd have to agree with all of this, even if I'm someone who typically agrees with the fact that government is incompetent. I don't think that the government and policy makers (Republicans and Democrats) are going to just make large decisions like this willy nilly. No one is just going to decide, for partisan reasons, that they're going to try to kill the economy through making up a fake virus for a quarantine. This doesn't make sense at all because it's bullshit.

We do truly have a highly infectious virus on our hands that is killing people in the at risk categories (Older, Respiratory Issues, Heart Issues, etc) and others in some mysterious fashion.

Will medical experts and economic experts disagree on how they want to see the reopening happen? Yes, it makes sense on why they would -- medical experts are going to look at different things and economic experts are going to look at different things as well.