Quote from: Majormax on Today at 09:10:03 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 04:26:35 AM

wake me up when (no, I am not going to say "if") we break outside of $7,800 - $10,200. Tongue

I think we can agree on that. It has been great swing trading for sellers at 10k. The major resistance was at 10.5k , now it looks like there's another hard wall at 10k.

Perhaps we agree on the approximate range, but still for different reasons.

The BTC price has brought us to a kind of confluence, but we still have some differing views of how we got here, what might keep us here and what are the odds of getting out of here.

Certainly, I don't feel that I am proclaiming any kind of difficulty going in one direction or another, so I am not really going to be surprised by a break out in either direction, even though I do tend to prescribe, overall, to the various current BTC price prediction models such as stock to flow, four year fractal and s-curve exponential adoption based on metcalfe and networking principles to be ongoingly contributing to upwards price pressures on BTC, but I am not wedded that they those ongoingly upwards price pressures have to necessarily result in short-term upward BTC price performance, especially when we just had a 150% price appreciation from the $3,850 local bottom that even if that may have been a bit of an overreaction, it still happened and can reasonably contribute to limitations in terms of how much and how fast king daddy can go up without some both testing of resolution and also making sure that the buying support is keeping up with the subsequent price movements.

Of course, from time to time, the move up might get a bit overheated and the price just cannot be sustained on the short term, but regrouping could still take a week or two and sometimes just a few days, and continued upwards ends up being in the cards.

Sure, previously, I heard you paint $10,500 as some kind of difficult obstacle, and sure it could be difficult, until it isn't. In mid-March or so, you also stated that you thought that we might not see $10k for a couple of years, and about 6 weeks later we were playing around with some short-lived supra $10k which seemed to be quite a bit outside of your previous asserted parameters of expectations... so ultimately I tend to view you as maintaining overly pessimistic viewpoints that surely could damage some fence sitters who might fail to act because they do not realize that sometimes bitcoin is not going to return to lower prices before she just resumes up, and they should have been either stacking sats all along or at least been a bit more willing to just buy rather than waiting for some lower low that might or might not happen and even if it does happen it might not last long enough to even matter in the whole scheme of things and they would have been just better off buying at whatever price rather than waiting for a 20% further discount.

Quote from: Majormax on Today at 09:10:03 AM

I would like to think the floor is where you put it, 7200, but there is room for a little more of a drop.

I was not really trying to predict any kind of floor, and I had stated $7,800...

I was merely asserting a price range in which BTC could fairly easily move in the near times that would be within reason in my thinking, and I would not be getting too exciting until the BTC price either got close to the end of the range or broke outside of the range.

As far as bottom, I am starting to think that we can rest more assured that we won't be seeing too much more sub $6k, but hey, anything can happen, but seems to me that with the passage of time, that bottom seems to be moving up, maybe in late 2018 it would have been $1,500-ish (but never reached it), and then mid 2019 it became $3,500-ish... and then maybe late 2019 to early 2020 it became $5k-ish (and of course we saw that got breached), and more recently, it probably is around $6k-ish.. and continuing to move up... little by little.. but still could end up getting breached, stop moving up or have to be adjusted back down.

Quote from: Majormax on Today at 09:10:03 AM

It might be helpful to look at it this way : like waiting for all the Covid19 rules to fade away before seeing 5 figures again. I cannot put a time on it !

I doubt that king daddy gives too many shits about corona... but hey, I get what you are saying about macro-dynamics, but we still have not had any kind of disproving of current btc price prediction models that likely override corona.. until shown otherwise...... so sure, maybe we need to adjust the current btc price prediction models a little bit on their curve.. tweak them down a bit to account for corona... but in the end corona and the money printer go bbbbrrrrrr reaction do not really negate or conflict with the current btc price prediction models in any kind of meaningful ways, so in that sense you seem to be attempting to presume way the fuck too much medium or long term correlation of king daddy to macro systems, even though there is likely some short term correlation from time to time, but that short term correlation does not necessarily negate other more important dynamics going on in bitcoin that seem to be captured in its current seemingly valid price prediction models, which again are: 1) stock to flow, 2) Four year fractal, 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on metcalfe and networking principles.

So, sure we might get some further drastic BTC price corrections in the upcoming near-term, perhaps, perhaps, based on macro-liquidation situations that end up happening again, but we might not, too. bitcoin might go up another 4x and then get a drastic liquidation correction .. so what does that mean, exactly?

Anyhow, newbies still need to get a fucking position in BTC (if they do not have one) and to continue with their accumulation of btc and assurance that they are comfortable with their allocation levels based on their own personal circumstances, which would include their cashflow, other investment, view of bitcoin as compared with other assets, risk tolerance, timeline, and time, skills and abilities to research, manage, tweak and trade their portfolio from time to time.... so yeah, liquidations might happen, but they might not and they might also happen after bitcoin goes up 4x.. but whatever, there is always going to be some spin, too.

Despite all the doom and gloom and supposed limitations of the UPside potential of BTC it has consistently been a best practice to continue to accumulate BTC whether DCA or buying on dips or some combination of that, so even if we might be flat for a period of time (maybe?), still would be a good time to continue to accumulate BTC in my thinkenings.