Quote from: TwitchySeal on May 27, 2020, 05:20:44 AM

Quote from: squatz1 on May 27, 2020, 05:16:52 AM

Not sure what you're getting at here, but PredictIt is still going to be one of the worst sources for information. Biden is possible the worst candidate to face Trump come November. They literally had a chance here to pick someone that would energize their voters to not only get Trump out of office, but to bring forward Democrat ideals to the forefront of politics (Universal Healthcare, Community College, etc) -- but they picked Biden who is ugh-- Biden.

Would much rather go with 538 here - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/ - I know this is just aggregate general election polling, but still much better then PredictIt gambling degenerates trying to pick something.

This is also pretty interesting to see as well - 538 aggregate of polls on the race for Congress - Dems have a pretty large lead on that at the moment - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=irpromo

I agree fivethirtyeight is the best when it comes to crunching numbers.

No matter who's running against Trump, they're going to be pushed at the absolute worst. Hillary was had great approval ratings as First Lady, Senator, Secretary of State and during 2008 primaries. Even Republicans loved her.

Same with Biden. His career was basically scandal free, nobody hated him, and after the 2016 election there was a lot of talk about if only it were Biden instead of Hillary.

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Senate would pick the VP -- giving it to Pence.

Even if the Dems won the senate?

I read a bit wrong into this, it would be the NEW CONGRESS that would decide this task. Tough to say on if the Republicans are going to be able to hold their state delegation lead and the Senate, but it is possible.

Even then, if they hold the state delegations, that guarantees them control of the Executive for another 4 years. If the Dems picked their VP to be Biden, Warren, Sanders, etc --- they're just not going to be able to do anything but go settle some ties in the senate (their only real constitutional mandate). Anyone that isn't Pence / a Republican is just going to be relegated to join the other (MANY) useless VP's who just sit around and wait for their President to die.

The Atlantic has a good piece on this - https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/07/what-happens-if-2020-election-tie/593608/ - Talks about how close some of the delegations are (on both sides) and how the delegation race could be decided by one congressional district in many states.