Yeah, what solarguy already said: Mat, stop fucking up your trendlines. They're shaky grounds as it is (I use them myself, so I know how much they can resemble reading tea leaves), but once you declare random candle wicks "outliers" or some shit you're really giving up on any and all rigor.
It is true, when it comes to TA, I am complete novice (hence TA 101) and it also true that I am building my TA 101 interpretation on what I intuitively feel lies around the corner for Bitcoin. For the first time in a long time, I just don't have the Bitcoin fear that has made me a bear since the second $1000 - $1100 range (I never even knew what a double top was back then). I think Bitcoin right about now will prove a good investment in the medium term.
The position that I am taking, is that right now, I am shorting Bitcoin on Bitfinex. On Bitstamp where I keep the vast majority of my powder, I have buy in tranches from $505 down to $460 which would be down in the oversold range of the current long term trend, which I feel is due to reverse.
If however, we can get above 580 peaking at around 600 range before testing 580 as a support. Then I will be prepared to admit defeat on both my short and my sub $400 buy in tranches but acknowledge that a head n shoulders has occurred with two shoulders at $530 range (which we hit yesterday evening) and buy in on trend reversal confirmation.
If am totally 100% wrong, and my sub $400 buy-ins get triggered and Bitcoin crashes through $400 and into $300 range, then I should have good opportunity to cover my ass on the bounce. I will also have an leveraged short position which should also hedge me against any heavy losses should it transpire that my instincts on this one are wrong.
As I have said many times, I do believe in lower lows before any ATHs are found....just can't bring myself to believe that any lower low is just lingering around the corner.