Quote from: Gyfts on June 07, 2020, 08:21:23 AM

Some Texas polls came out for Biden vs. Trump and they're not looking good. We're super early so polls aren't all that relevant but you cannot be a Republican incumbent and be within the margin of error for a state like Texas.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/tx/texas_trump_vs_biden-6818.html

Recent Quinnipiac poll has Trump 44, Biden 43; conducted 5/28 - 6/1.

Looks like people really don't like where things are with Trump right now and I imagine the George Floyd incident has a lot to do with it. His twitter feed was a bit more out of control than normal and there were advisors that urged Trump to deliver a unifying message from the oval office during the peak of the riots but he refused.

For reference, Romney vs. Obama polls had a RCP average of nearly 16 points: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/tx/texas_romney_vs_obama-1945.html

The actual results for the state turned out to be just about spot on.

Yeah this is looking pretty horrible right now. I'm not sure if the good ole 'the polls are wrong' are going to be true twice when it comes to Trump. I'd think that they're going to now lean in Trumps favor b/c of the amount they fucked the polls up in 2020.

Not a big fan of RCL, as they don't weight the good polls and the bad polls as a way to correct them. Would much rather use 538 - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/ - but in any case, this doesn't look good and I think it's fair to say that Trump is taking a real beating from his decisions after the death of George Floyd and the protest following.

It's totally not a good look when you have peaceful protestors outside of the WH and you teargas / rubber bullet them to take a picture. Maybe the base will like the show of force, but that's not the way to convince independents and democrats to vote for you.

But yeah, we are very far out and things could change quickly. Time will only tell if this time is different for Trump.