Quote from: m0rf3u5 on March 03, 2014, 01:33:27 AM

This experiment depends on two things,

1) Faith in the dev (both personal trust and future development of the coin)
2) The ability to make money from it

I would imagine most of the coin buying currently is because of 2). People are selling below 0.001 not just for liquidity reasons, it's because if the current trend continues, short term returns will decrease even further as bagholders from week 1 & week 2 compete with sellers from week 3 for the dev buyback, suggesting we won't see the price much over 0.00115 next week, and by week 5 or 6 the dev may struggle to convince people to invest at all.

Although I still have a little faith in this, this week's rule changes, the dev's protestations of 'why are people setting their sells so low?' without any plan to raise the price much, the 'accidental' early start, have all made this experiment look more like a sucker trap

Fair comments.

Everybody involved is a trader or investor, I'm quite sure it's obvious that the total BTC in the pot is exactly enough to buy back all WOLF at the price paid, if nobody holds. If even one person holds, and everybody else sells, then there is enough for everybody to make a slight profit. The more that hold, the more profit for those that sell in the short term. The more that sell in the short term, the more wolf that's destroyed, and each holder has a higher percentage of the entire wolf supply. Factor in the people who are selling to acquire more wolf, and you have even more being destroyed, with some acquiring higher percentages of the wolf supply.

Last week, the first week where the BTC pot filled and went in to the next one, was always going to make it more competitive. I have a feeling some people thought they could lazy trade in to guaranteed profit, buy coin, place order to get 80% profit, get 80% profit.

We are in a situation where two things can happen now:

People stop buying WOLF - consider nobody else buys all week, there is 100 BTC in the pot for next week already, the results will be more like week one with 80% average profit
People keep buying WOLF - more BTC pots fill, and we get closer to the point where the supply is empty, with weekly 100 BTC bumps, short term profit is lower, mid term profit is higher

So, if you all stop buying, those with WOLF for next week already make more profit than this week. If you keep buying you bring it closer to the point where holders start to benefit, and the short termers still make a profit in BTC or WOLF depending how greedy you get.

Honestly though, which of you thought that your fellow informed traders would let you double your bitcoin so easily? You can't magic money out of thin air, if you all want to get BTC profit each week, you're going to have a bad time, if you all want to sell every wolf acquired, the BEST you can collectively do each week is to get exactly the price you paid, or a marginal profit.

To bring it back to reality though, I'm hearing complaints from people that "we only made 80% profit last week, 40% this week, and might only make 15% next week". Warren Buffet one of the worlds best, made an average of 21.5% over his years.

On the other side, anybody holding now has 10% more of the WOLF supply.

Remember it's a weekly 100 BTC limit, if 200 BTC is sold in one week, it might be an idea to wait till the next week to sell some if you want more profit or maybe only sell a percentage of your holdings, or even wait for three weeks later. But if you all race for the same BTC in a week, then of course all your doing is giving profit to the people who are playing in subsequent weeks, and making less yourself in that 7 day period.

Again, people have different strategies, some single week hit and hopers, some multi week short term, some long term, some split holdings over different strategies to mitigate risk, some exploit others and push them lower, some don't think but react, and some just wonder why they didn't get free money.

Just want to make sure you caught:

Quote from: InsanityDev on March 02, 2014, 07:41:56 PM

Decision
I want to change this back over two weeks to how it was.

Week 3
I will be buying and selling, making whale moves in both directions, and the spread will change up and down over several hours. Those playing will make the most money for the week by buying and selling, and focussing what I, the whale, am doing. Expect no huge bumps, just a volatile market where active traders will make profit... obviously a fair chunk of buy orders will be filled in the process though.

Week 4 - Supply End
The time will change from a fixed 6 hours, to me trading with the pot at any time whilst the supply is closed. 12:00 Sunday to 10:00 Monday.

Supply End - Week 9
Bump, at a random time each weekend, 100 BTC will buy up the book in a single order as high as it will go.

I've changed parameters based on feedback several times, it's made the game more boring, getting back to roots now

update
All WOLF acquired today has been destroyed see: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=471166.msg5467732#msg5467732