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Americans should start wearing masks NOW or have 1M+ deaths by November, 2020, and 50M+ deaths by November 2021.
In the absence of a reliable vaccine, only a change in human behaviour (wearing PPE, social distancing) can stop the spread of this virus.
50+? Wow, that's way more than the 1918 Spanish Flu, 50-100M deaths for the entire world.
You seriously believe that number?
If nothing is done, by November we will get...
infected = (day count)^1.04
and almost everyone will be infected for the first time by November assuming 4% infection rate (it might be quite higher and non-linear, once schools open without any restrictions).
The mortality of second infections will be much higher as internal organs would already be permanently damaged by first infections.
I am assuming it will be around 50% for the people who get second infections. As we approach the herd immunity, the virus might mutate further as it will be harder for it to survive, so all bets are off.
People do not quite understand the gravity of the situation.
Okay, I see your method. I don't agree with it, but here is a suggestion. Why not look at major pandemics of the past, and various imputed real world growth rates?
You don't have a sound theoretical basis for an unbounded weak exponential growth rate.